April Review

1 May 2024

April Review

By Adam Novakovic


The way energy prices were moving throughout April was making a fool out of our previous prediction of prices going down. For the majority of the month prices rose, reaching levels last seen in January. However, towards the end of the month we saw prices for future gas and electricity markets fall back below the levels they started the month at, as prices seem set to drop further. So, what influenced the price movement this month?


There were two main factors driving prices up this month, the first of which being the weather. This April was colder, and significantly wetter, than had been expected. This caused an unanticipated increase in consumption.


The 2nd factor that led to prices rising was outages in Norwegian gas production. The UK imports more gas from Norway than from any other country, and production was disrupted this month due to maintenance taking places at key gas fields. 

We also saw the UK and Norwegian governments take steps this month to avoid any future disruptions by committing to improve the security around the pipelines connecting the two nations.


The importing of gas may become even more important going forwards, as it was revealed this month that UK gas production was down almost 10% when compared to the previous year. Although, this can be partly attributed to lower overall demand due to changes in consumption patterns.


Amanda Solloway, the UK Energy Affordability Minister, addressed calls for reducing standing charges, confirming that she had contacted OFGEM regarding the issue. She also announced that companies with fewer than 50 employees are now entitled to receive free help from the Energy Ombudsman when resolving energy disputes.


Internationally, tensions flared as drone strikes were launched on the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. The plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, was targeted on the 7th of April, however, no serious damage was reported and this doesn’t appear to be an ongoing concern.


Conflict in the Middle East remained a talking point, although it seems that any fears in the area appear to be subsiding, and the market doesn’t look to be reacting to news of minor conflicts in the region.


Outlook

Natural gas prices are expected to fall, at least according to the European Commission. Investments made over the previous few years are likely to lead to a period of energy abundance which will lower prices globally. Natural gas prices are a factor in both gas and electricity prices, and any reduction in their prices will be a big positive to energy consumers.


Further positive prognostications came from Cornwall Insight. The business consultant announced that they believe energy prices are set to steadily fall for the remainder of the decade. They significantly lowered their price projections for the coming two years. 

This aligns with advice that we have been giving to clients in the past year, as we have been recommending clients only take on short term contracts in order to fully take advantage of falling prices and not to be locked into longer term contracts that may become uncompetitive after their first year.


If you require advice about your upcoming contract renewals and would like to know what type/duration of contract could be best for your business, contact us today to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs. 



14 October 2025
In the last decade, over 50 UK energy suppliers have gone out of business. With Tomato Energy being issued with a provisional order this week, it seems as though their name will be the latest to be added to the list of defunct suppliers including Bulb, Avro, and Spark Energy. For customers of a supplier that is on the brink of going out of business, this can be a scary time, but there is a process in place to ensure they are not at risk of losing their supply. Who is responsible? OFGEM (The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets) are a non-ministerial government department tasked with regulating the energy markets and networks. In cases where a supplier goes out of business, OFGEM provide a safety net to ensure that customers supply won’t be disrupted. What is the process? OFGEM may elect to appoint an administrator. If this is the path they choose, then no action is necessary from the supplier’s customers. At some point, the administrator may choose to shut down the supplier, at which point, all existing customers will be moved to a new supplier of the administrator’s choosing.
6 October 2025
Market-Wide Half-Hourly Settlement (MHHS) What is MHHS? MHHS stands for Market-Wide Half-Hourly Settlement. Currently, most electricity is billed based on estimates or meter reads that can be provided monthly, quarterly, or sporadically. With MHHS electricity consumption will be accounted for and billed in 30-minute blocks. The idea is that with more precise, time-based data, suppliers and networks can match supply and demand more accurately. This helps reduce waste and allow more flexibility in how electricity is used across the system. Who does it apply to? Previously, only large industrial and commercial users needed to have half-hourly meters, but MHHS is intended to apply across the whole electricity market in Great Britain. This includes domestic consumers, small businesses, large industrial users, and everything in between. That means most electricity users will be indirectly affected, even if they don’t see anything change in how their meter looks, the rules behind billing and settlement will shift behind the scenes.
1 October 2025
September Review By Adam Novakovic We have reached the time of year where the summer months have started to fade and we begin to think about the colder seasons. This month saw the UK government recognise Palestine as a country, although they still seem unable to recognise the harm their energy policies are causing UK businesses. With further charges set to be added to UK energy bills and rising non-commodity costs, it was a relief that wholesale energy prices remained fairly flat throughout September. A recent report from independent analysts Cornwall Insights revealed that large energy users who aren’t covered by Government schemes could find that they are paying a further £450,000/year in non-commodity costs by 2030. With non-commodity costs such as DUOS and TUOS charges –which are used to fund the infrastructure responsible for the transmission of electricity – now accounting for over 2/3rds of total electricity costs for some businesses, it is of growing concern that these charges are set to continue rising. With the TUOS charges for 26/27 expected to increase significantly , the non-commodity charges are starting to have a negative impact on UK businesses ability to compete against foreign businesses with fewer governmental charges on their energy bills. This growing concern is yet to be addressed but could have a huge impact on many industries in the next year.
25 September 2025
Following on from our previous article about rising TNuOS costs , we look at the reasons behind energy price rises, and which other items on your bill are likely to increase in the near future. What is RIIO – ET3? RIIO: “Revenue = Incentives + Innovation + Outputs” is Ofgem’s regulatory framework for setting how much network operators can recover from users while delivering value, efficiency and innovation. The current RIIO-2 period ends 31 March 2026, and RIIO-ET3 (also called RIIO-3) will run from 1 April 2026 through 31 March 2031.
17 September 2025
How TNUoS costs are set to rise As the UK pushes towards a low-carbon energy system, there has been a sharp rise in costs for businesses connected to the grid. The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has released its latest five-year outlook on Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges, and -- from April 2026 – energy costs will rise significantly to fund the country’s energy transition. What Are TNUoS Charges? NESO uses the funds from TNUoS charges to build, operate, and maintain the high-voltage transmission network across Britain. The forecasts for 2026/27 have indicated that NESO will be looking to almost double the revenue generated in the previous year. While suppliers pass these charges on to both households and businesses, the scale of the increases ahead will be most acutely felt by large energy users.
8 September 2025
ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know The Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme (ESOS) Phase 4 is underway, starting on 6 December 2023, with a compliance deadline of 5 December 2027 . UK businesses must understand ESOS Phase 4 eligibility , key changes, and deadlines to ensure compliance and avoid penalties. This guide covers everything you need to know about ESOS Phase 4 for UK businesses . Who needs to comply with ESOS Phase 4? The ESOS Phase 4 eligibility criteria remain consistent with Phase 3. Your organisation qualifies as a “large undertaking” if, on the qualification date of 31 December 2026 , it meets all of these requirements: Based and registered in the UK Employs 250 or more people Has an annual turnover above £44 million Has an annual balance sheet total over £38 million To confirm your ESOS Phase 4 eligibility , visit our site and answer the questions to see if your business should be participating. Even if you don’t currently meet these criteria, crossing the threshold by the qualification date means you must submit a compliance notification by the ESOS Phase 4 deadline of 5 December 2027 . If your business qualified for Phase 3 but no longer meets the criteria, you must submit a “Do Not Qualify” (DNQ) notification via the Environment Agency’s MESOS portal. Key requirements for Phase 4 Phase 3 introduced the requirement for organisations to create an Action Plan that set out how you intend to cut energy use and when. That same principle continues in Phase 4, along with mandatory progress reporting in the years that follow. However, there are some updates to note: Action plan progress must now be included within your ESOS assessment. If commitments aren’t met, your business will need to explain why. Display Energy Certificates (DECs) and Green Deal Assessments (GDAs) are no longer valid routes to compliance. While net zero reporting will not yet be mandatory, you can choose to adopt the new PAS 51215 standards for voluntary energy and decarbonisation reporting. This could give your organisation a head start before net zero requirements arrive in Phase 5. These ESOS Phase 4 key changes ensure businesses focus on actionable energy efficiency measures and transparent reporting.
1 September 2025
August Review By Adam Novakovic August was a month that saw the return of domestic football and the return of one of the most prolific energy narratives of the last 5 years, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine once again dominated the headlines.
29 August 2025
Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy: What It Means for Your Electricity Bills From this autumn, UK businesses will see a new charge appear on their electricity invoices: the Nuclear Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Levy. This charge will help finance new nuclear power stations such as Sizewell C, but it also means yet another non-commodity cost will be added to bills. What is the RAB model? The Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model is not new and has been used for decades to fund water networks, energy grids, and other large-scale infrastructure. Instead of waiting until projects are completed, it allows investors to receive steady returns during construction. The aim is to lower the overall cost of borrowing by sharing risk between developers, government, and consumers. In 2022, the Nuclear Energy Financing Act cleared the way for this model to be applied to nuclear energy. The logic is that by reducing financial risk, investors will be more willing to commit to long-term projects. For the government, it helps accelerate the nuclear build-out that is essential to the UK’s 2030 clean power targets. For consumers, however, it means paying towards new power plants years before they produce a single kilowatt-hour and before they can help lower unit rates.
21 August 2025
Why electricity prices keep going up By Adam Novakovic Electricity has always been more than just a utility it is an essential component in every part of UK business. Yet in recent years, costs have been climbing steadily, and today’s bills are weighed down by more than just wholesale market prices. There can be long periods of time where wholesale prices remain stable or decrease, yet the amount businesses are paying for their electricity continues to rise. A large part of the increase comes from policy decisions. Most notably the way the UK has chosen to fund decarbonisation, its reliance on renewables, and its failure to make a serious commitment to nuclear energy.
14 August 2025
Back Billing: Understanding OFGEM Rules and Avoiding Unexpected Energy Costs in the UK Recently we have been seeing an increase in suppliers issuing invoices for charges that are more than 12 months old. Back billing can catch UK businesses and households by surprise, leading to unexpected energy costs. This guide explains what is back billing , the OFGEM back billing rule , and practical steps to avoid energy back bills. What Is a Back Bill? Back billing occurs when an energy supplier issues an invoice for energy used but not previously billed accurately. This could result from missed meter readings, estimated charges, or issues with consumption data. These bills can cover usage from weeks, months, or even over a year, leading to significant unexpected costs for UK energy users. The 12-Month Back-Billing Rule The OFGEM back billing rule protects domestic energy users and microbusinesses in the UK. Under OFGEM regulations, suppliers cannot charge for energy used more than 12 months ago if: You never received an accurate bill for that period, even after requesting one. You were not informed of charges through a statement of account. Your Direct Debit was set too low to cover actual usage, and the supplier failed to adjust it. This OFGEM back billing rule ensures suppliers cannot unfairly burden customers with old charges due to their own errors. Exceptions to the OFGEM Back Billing Rule You may be liable for charges older than 12 months if the billing issue is your fault. For instance, if you deliberately prevented meter access or ignored billing requests, suppliers can back-bill for up to six years. Understanding these exceptions can be key to managing back billing on UK energy invoices.