August 2025 Review

1 September 2025

August Review

By Adam Novakovic

August was a month that saw the return of domestic football and the return of one of the most prolific energy narratives of the last 5 years, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine once again dominated the headlines. 

Wholesale prices fell steadily throughout the month, and although the final 3rd of the month did see a sharp rise in prices, this rise was short lived, as the month ended with prices continuing their downtrend. This fall could also be seen in the gas markets with Summer’26 gas prices also dropping by approximately 10%. For a business that is expected to consume 100,000 therms of gas during April-September of 2026, this represents a saving of around £7,500.


Since the beginning of the year, one of the key narratives shaping energy prices has been whether EU nations will be able to buy adequate quantities of gas to refill their reserves in-line with EU mandates. During August, it was revealed that EU storage is now above 70% full and it seems most nations will be able to achieve their gas reserve goals without difficulty.

There had been concerns regarding German reserve levels, with the Rehden facility – the country’s largest – not achieving expected levels. Many of these worries were allayed when it was announced that the facility was set to be allocated 3 TWh of gas by the German supplier SEFE.

Previously, there has been fears that countries who fell behind with their targeted purchases may drive energy prices higher if they needed to outbid other nations in order to obtain the required gas. This now appears to be an unlikely scenario, especially after the EU relaxed the terms of their mandate allowing more flexibility in the dates that countries achieve their 90% reserve capacity. 


It seems a long-time since the Russia-Ukraine conflict sent energy prices to unprecedented highs in 2022, but the conflict is still having an impact on gas and electricity rates. At the August 15 Alaska summit, the U.S. and Russia held indirect peace negotiations. Presidents Trump and Putin met and were unable to agree on a binding agreement. Subsequent talks at the White House on August 18 involved Ukraine’s Zelenskyy and European leaders, who pushed for security guarantees. However, Putin reportedly demanded ceding Donbas in exchange for peace, which Zelenskyy rejected.

Energy prices remained elevated amid continued uncertainty. With attacks on energy infrastructure -- including Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian refineries and pipelines -- raising concerns about supply disruptions.



Outlook

With the markets not reacting too severely to attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine, it appears that restrictions to supply from Russia will have a muted effect compared to 3 years ago. While this caps the potential for price rises, the possibility of Russian pipelines being re-opened to European markets still has the potential to lower prices. Reports suggest this has been discussed during talks, although it seems we may still be some distance from the point where this could become a reality.

This month we saw confirmation of a new charge that will be appearing on electricity bills during the final quarter of 2025. Whilst it is unlikely anybody will be jumping for joy at the prospect of another charge on their energy invoices, this charge is set to fund UK nuclear projects, and August saw workers arrive on site for the construction of Sizewell C which will contribute towards increasing the UK’s nuclear capacity. This increased nuclear power generation should lead to lowering unit costs and increased energy security for the UK.


Prices look set to continue to drop over the coming months, but one fear is the UK’s reliance on Norwegian gas. There is currently maintenance work being undertaken in Norway, and any unexpected delays or problems with this could cause a short-term spike in prices.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs. 

Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy

29 August 2025
Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy: What It Means for Your Electricity Bills From this autumn, UK businesses will see a new charge appear on their electricity invoices: the Nuclear Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Levy. This charge will help finance new nuclear power stations such as Sizewell C, but it also means yet another non-commodity cost will be added to bills. What is the RAB model? The Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model is not new and has been used for decades to fund water networks, energy grids, and other large-scale infrastructure. Instead of waiting until projects are completed, it allows investors to receive steady returns during construction. The aim is to lower the overall cost of borrowing by sharing risk between developers, government, and consumers. In 2022, the Nuclear Energy Financing Act cleared the way for this model to be applied to nuclear energy. The logic is that by reducing financial risk, investors will be more willing to commit to long-term projects. For the government, it helps accelerate the nuclear build-out that is essential to the UK’s 2030 clean power targets. For consumers, however, it means paying towards new power plants years before they produce a single kilowatt-hour and before they can help lower unit rates.

Why electricity prices keep going up

21 August 2025
Why electricity prices keep going up By Adam Novakovic Electricity has always been more than just a utility it is an essential component in every part of UK business. Yet in recent years, costs have been climbing steadily, and today’s bills are weighed down by more than just wholesale market prices. There can be long periods of time where wholesale prices remain stable or decrease, yet the amount businesses are paying for their electricity continues to rise. A large part of the increase comes from policy decisions. Most notably the way the UK has chosen to fund decarbonisation, its reliance on renewables, and its failure to make a serious commitment to nuclear energy.

Back Billing

14 August 2025
Back Billing Recently we have been seeing an increase in suppliers issuing invoices for charges that are more than 12 months old. In this article we will be reviewing why you may not be liable for these charges. What Is a Back Bill? A back bill is issued when your supplier discovers that they haven’t accurately invoiced you. This can be due to missed readings, estimated charges, or issues with obtaining consumption data. These bills can include charges dating back weeks, months, or even over a year, leading to unexpected costs. The 12-Month Back-Billing Rule Under Ofgem’s rules, suppliers cannot charge domestic energy users or microbusinesses for energy used more than 12 months ago, provided that you: Never received an accurate bill for that period (even if requested) Were never informed of charges through a statement of account Had a Direct Debit but it was set too low to cover the actual charges When You May Be Asked to Pay for Energy Consumed More Than 12 Months Ago The only scenario where you could be charged for older energy usage is if the issue is deemed to be your fault. For example, if you deliberately prevented meter access or ignored billing requests, your supplier can back-bill you for up to six years.

July 2025 Review

3 August 2025
July was a month that saw an England international football team lift a trophy and the unfamiliar events weren’t just limited to the sporting arena. For the first time in recent memory, it wasn’t geopolitics and international conflicts that were the main drivers behind movements in the energy market. In this article we review the factors that did cause energy prices to change and how prices are likely to move for the remainder of 2025.

The EII Support Levy (ESL)

29 July 2025
What is the EII Support Levy? As of April this year, a new charge called the EII Support Levy may have begun appearing on your invoices. The ESL has been introduced by the government to fund the Exemption Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). This essentially means that businesses not categorised as operating in Energy Intensive Industries will be offsetting the costs of businesses whose SIC codes do fall under the EII umbrella. This is being done to ensure UK businesses with large energy costs can remain competitive internationally. Which businesses need to pay it? All non-domestic UK energy users who don’t have a SIC code that classifies them as being a part of an Energy Intensive Industry will need to pay it. How the charge is applied will be at the discretion of suppliers with some suppliers yet to confirm exactly how they will be applying the charge.

June 2025 Review

30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.

The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy

24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 

How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices

19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.

May 2025 Review

1 June 2025
May Review By Adam Novakovic As Summer kicked into gear, we saw a small jump in the wholesale energy markets at the start of month before the prices began to stabilise.

April 2025 Review

1 May 2025
April 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic For some, April can be the cruellest of months. We saw Earthquakes cause damage in Thailand, volcanic eruptions near Iceland, and the month ended with blackouts in the Iberian peninsula. The latter highlighting the issues with switching to renewable energy sources too quickly, at the expense of energy grid stability. However, April can also be a time of great optimism as we exit the winter months and head towards the summer. The energy markets gave us plenty of reasons to be happy in the past month as wholesale gas prices fell over 20%. This drop was also seen in the gas markets for Winter’25 (a 20.42% drop) and for Summer’26 (a 14.17% drop) as prices fell, representing a good buying opportunity for those on flexible contracts.