November 2025 Review
By Adam Novakovic
Whilst November’s budget may have disappointed businesses hoping for governmental assistance in the battle against high energy prices, the wholesale market offered some hope. With the mandated need for EU nations to replenish their reserves now in the rear-view mirror, buying pressure dissipated, and there were many positive stories that helped send prices downwards.
The first half of the month saw small rises and drops that largely cancelled each other out, but from November 18th through to the 28th, wholesale gas prices fell approximately 12% and reached their lowest levels since July’24. There is normally a slight delay before the wholesale price drops are passed on to the end user, but for those with contract expiry dates in the next 6 months, the coming weeks may present opportunities to obtain quotes at rates more favourable than at any other point in 2025.
One of the main reasons for optimism regarding future gas supplies is the peace talks being held between Russia and Ukraine. Any formal deal will almost certainly include a lifting of sanctions on Russian gas sales and provide a significant supply boost to the global market. However, there may still be obstacles to overcome before any peace plan is finalised with Ukraine and Russia both unwilling to concede territory.

Further positive geopolitical news came as the Houthis have ceased attacking shipping routes in the red sea. There had been fears that this could cause a disruption in LNG shipped from Qatar, but with the announcement of last month’s ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, Yemen’s Islamic political and military organisation have halted their naval assaults.
LNG supply from the US also helped lower wholesale prices with the States exporting 10.7 million tonnes of LNG in November – setting a record for the most LNG exported by a single nation in a calendar month. This represents a 40% year-on-year increase in US gas exports with further LNG becoming available for shipping early in 2026.
While there had been an anticipation that the government would address the impact their green levies were having on business energy bills, there was little reprieve offered in the budget. This lack of assistance has made it more important than ever for UK businesses to be proactive in reducing energy costs. If your business would like advice on cost-saving methods that can show quick energy spend reductions, contact us today for free, no-obligation advice.

Outlook
November had started with planned outages for the Norwegian gas fields which are responsible for a large portion of the gas exported to the UK. However, no further outages are now planned for the remainder of the winter, and the UK should receive a steady supply of gas from the Norwegian pipelines.
Global LNG exports are currently in a healthy position but are expected to improve in early 2026 when the Louisiana-based Golden Pass begin exporting. This is expected to add 18.1 million metric tonnes of gas to the global supply. Without further increases in demand, this should assist in lowering global energy prices.

With the supply picture looking it’s healthiest in recent memory, it will be worth keeping an eye on factors that impact demand. November began with temperatures above the seasonal norm and stronger-than-expected wind generation. Early forecasts are showing that we may be in for a milder winter, however, the risk of cold snaps increasing consumption remains as was evidenced later in November when overnight temperatures dropped sharply.
It seems likely that prices will continue to drop during the winter period. As long as the weather doesn’t drop to levels that causes larger demand, and there are no geopolitical events that create uncertainty for energy production or transit, it is reasonable to expect further drops in price that could take the wholesale market back to levels not seen since May of 2023.
If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs.
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