November Review

3 December 2024

November Review

By Adam Novakovic

November 2024 saw the US choose a new president, Austria refuse to pay for their gas imports, and the UK set a record for importing more energy than ever before. While some of the news this month was novel and unfamiliar, there was a sense of Déjà vu in the factors keeping energy prices high. With international conflict and inaccurate forecasts from meteorologists being the prime culprits.


Wholesale energy prices had dipped in the final days of October, but any hope that this trend would continue into November would be short-lived, with the 1st of November marking the lowest we would see gas and electricity prices for the entire month.


While prices did continue to rise on geopolitical uncertainty and fears of gas reserves being used at a higher than anticipated level, there was some good news from the US.

Earlier this year Joe Biden had put a pause on all LNG export permits in an attempt to appeal to the green voting bloc. However, Donald Trump was quick to announce that one of his first actions when he re-takes the role of president will be to lift the ban on US LNG exports and approve pending permits. This is very bullish news for European energy consumers who had been forced into LNG bidding wars with Asian countries undergoing heatwaves for much of 2024.

Trump’s election also seems to offer an increased likelihood of a cessation of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. A change of sentiment from the west towards Russia could lead to quick negotiations to secure the transit of Russian gas to Europe for 2025.


One of the main factors behind rising energy prices throughout November was the colder than predicted weather. Forecasts of mini-heatwaves in the first few days of November had changed to reports of 18 inches of snow less than days later. The Nordic jet stream responsible for the colder weather caused some fear in the energy markets. With reserves likely to be depleted sooner than previously anticipated, there were concerns about whether the UK and other parts of Europe would need to make additional gas purchases in the coming months.

The cold weather was also compounded by a lack of wind. This lower-than-expected electricity production from wind turbines only increased the fear in the market and aided prices in rising higher.


On the continent, it wasn’t just cold weather causing issues. Austrian energy giant OMV had been awarded over €200m in arbitration against Gazprom for irregular supplies. However, rather than waiting for the Russian energy giant to make the payment or entering negotiations, OMV elected to seize Gazprom’s Austrian gas supplies in lieu of payment. This caused Gazprom to cut supplies to OMV and Austria. OMV had a contract in place with Gazprom until 2040 -- one of the few remaining significant contracts Gazprom has in Europe – but now it seems as though this contract is likely to be terminated. This deal had seen Austria receive gas at prices far below what other EU countries had been paying for gas, but it now seems as though they will have to find alternative sources to make up for this lack of supply, adding further competition to the demand side of the energy market.



Outlook


Gazprom remains a key part of the energy landscape as we look forward to the factors likely to influence prices in 2025. It is believed that the Russian company are planning on completely stopping all gas transit through Ukraine. While there has been talks of this gas being rerouted via Azerbaijan, so far no alternative is in place, and the loss of the gas from Russia has been largely priced into the current market levels. Should there be any news of a U-Turn from Gazprom, this would likely lead to a drop in prices as the supply picture would notably improve for Europe.


One way the supply picture looks almost certain to improve is the previously mentioned imports from the US. With the US having a large quantity of LNG – with more due to come online in the coming years – the option for importing from the US will be seen as a big positive for Europe and likely lead to 2025 energy prices heading down from their 2024 levels.


After dealing with colder than expected weather than may be some sense of positivity regarding how well European nations have dealt with the unanticipated increase in demand. Reports show that European reserve levels still sit close to 90% and this may lead to less of a knee-jerk reaction should there be another event causing gas demand to increase above predicted levels.


For those who have contracts expiring in the coming months there seems to be a couple of options available to you. At the moment it seems prudent to hold off as long as possible before signing a contract – especially if it is a short-term contract – or alternatively, looking at slightly longer-term contracts that will have the expected 2025 drop in prices already factored into the unit rates.

However, it is wise to have as much awareness about the available options as possible, and if you would like us to conduct a free market review on your behalf, contact us today to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs. 


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1 May 2025
April 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic For some, April can be the cruellest of months. We saw Earthquakes cause damage in Thailand, volcanic eruptions near Iceland, and the month ended with blackouts in the Iberian peninsula. The latter highlighting the issues with switching to renewable energy sources too quickly, at the expense of energy grid stability. However, April can also be a time of great optimism as we exit the winter months and head towards the summer. The energy markets gave us plenty of reasons to be happy in the past month as wholesale gas prices fell over 20%. This drop was also seen in the gas markets for Winter’25 (a 20.42% drop) and for Summer’26 (a 14.17% drop) as prices fell, representing a good buying opportunity for those on flexible contracts.
20 April 2025
TCR Banding: A Powerful but Overlooked Way to Lower Energy Costs for UK Businesses As UK business energy prices continue to fluctuate at historically high levels, companies across the country are under increasing pressure to find reliable ways to lower energy costs. With government levies, non-commodity charges, and market instability all contributing to rising bills, businesses must now look beyond traditional energy-saving methods to manage their expenses. In previous articles we looked at how to lower kVA charges , and published a guide on how to lower business energy costs . One such method gaining attention is TCR Banding — a relatively lesser-known, yet impactful solution for reducing DUoS and TUoS charges. What Is TCR Banding? TCR Banding is part of the Targeted Charging Review (TCR) , a reform introduced by Ofgem in 2022. Its goal is to ensure a fairer, more consistent system for charging UK electricity users for their share of the grid's maintenance costs — specifically the Transmission Use of System (TUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges. Instead of charges being based on when energy is used (which could be manipulated by large users), charges are now fixed and based on how much energy is typically consumed. This is where TCR Bands come into play. What Are TCR Bands? TCR Bands categorize electricity meters into different levels based on their voltage type and agreed kVA capacity. These bands determine the fixed DUoS and TUoS charges applied to a business's energy bill. For Low Voltage (LV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 80 kVA Band 2: 81 – 150 kVA Band 3: 151 – 231 kVA Band 4: 232 kVA and above For High Voltage (HV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 422 kVA Band 2: 423 – 1,000 kVA Band 3: 1,001 – 1,800 kVA Band 4: 1,801 kVA and above The higher your TCR band, the more you'll pay in fixed DUoS and TUoS charges — making it essential for UK businesses to ensure their banding is correctly assigned. Who Assigns Your TCR Band? Your Distribution Network Operator (DNO) is responsible for assigning your TCR Band. DNOs are regional companies that manage the physical infrastructure delivering electricity to your site. They’re also the ones compensated through DUoS and TUoS charges shown on your business energy invoice.
31 March 2025
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3 February 2025
January 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic This January saw the UK record it’s coldest night in 15 years, but there wasn’t much in the way of wind to accompany the cold temperatures of the month. This combination led to more energy being used than expected and lower-than-hoped renewable levels being recorded, as energy prices continued to rise against the backdrop of European gas reserve levels being depleted. January kicked off with the long-expected news that Russian gas supply would cease flowing into continental Europe. Whilst the cessation of this supply had been long planned for, many would have hoped it wouldn’t coincide with a cold snap hitting the continent. The lower-than-expected temperatures have led to energy consumption being higher than anticipated putting a further strain on reserve supplies. While the weather forecasts were making for dim reading, there was some positive news coming from across the Atlantic. Donald Trump -- uncharacteristically for a politician -- had followed through on his pre-election promises and lifted the freeze on US LNG exports. In addition to reallowing exports to be permitted, Trump has also allowed for new US LNG projects to be applied for, this boosts both short and long-term positivity surrounding the gas supply that can be received by Europe. With the cessation of the Russian gas supply occurring instantly from January 1 st , and the restarting of US exports being something that will likely take months before export capacity is fully ramped up, it could be a few months before the positive effects are truly felt. This would coincide with the end the European winter, so it may be the end of March or beginning of April until the market has a more positive response. However, this could also be when European nations look to begin restocking their reserves. For those with renewals in the coming 3 months, now may be the best time to seek prices, as the further depletion of European gas reserves is likely to have a negative impact upon prices. For those whose contract is due for renewal later in the year, it may be best to be patient and wait for the market conditions to change. If your contract is due for renewal later this year and you would like a reminder sent when the market conditions turn more favourable, simply email your contract end date to adam@seemoreenergy.co.uk and we will provide reminders ahead of the renewal, at times when the market is presenting favourable negotiation conditions.