June 2025 Review

30 June 2025

June 2025 Review

By Adam Novakovic

The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.

Wholesale prices would rise sharply between the 10th-25th where many market participants were faced with the difficult choice of locking in purchases at an inflated price or waiting to see whether the conflict in the Middle East could be resolved before it impacted LNG (liquified natural gas) imports. For companies on Flex contracts, this period highlighted the importance of having expert guidance throughout times when difficult decisions need to be made. If your business is currently on a flex contract and you would like to learn more about our flex advisory services, contact us today for a free consultation.


June began with negative stories driving prices higher as news broke of Ukraine launching drone attacks in Russian territory. There had previously been hopes of peace talks bringing an end to hostilities, but this was a reminder that the conflict is still on-going, and that any optimism regarding the resumption of Russian gas flows into Europe may be misplaced – particularly if the European commission refuse to change their stance towards Russia.


These attacks coincided with scheduled outages at Norwegian gas fields, further emphasising the UK’s reliance upon LNG exports. The outages had been planned in advance, but they make the energy markets more sensitive to any unexpected upticks in demand, or issues with supply.


The major factor that caused prices to rise in June, was the conflict between Israel and Iran. After Israel launched an initial wave of attacks, there were concerns about how Iran would respond. We discussed the impact of the conflict in more detail here. The main issue affecting the market was related to how this would impact LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged conflict would raise the risk premium of any cargo ships passing through the strait, and there were even talks of Iran shutting down the strait as a response to the attacks. 

Before the confirmation of a ceasefire sent prices back to their previous levels, the wholesale market had seen a 25% rise over the course of 2 weeks. However, prices have since returned to the lows seen at the end of April/start of May.


Towards the end of the month, the European Commission proposed a legally binding ban on any Russian gas imports, with EU LNG terminals being banned from dealing with Russia. Previous proposals of this nature had seen strong opposition from Slovakia and Hungary, and it remains to be seen whether this proposal will be possible to implement.



Outlook

The market is likely to be sensitive to any further conflicts that could impact LNG shipping routes. Although peace has now been declared, there is still an elevated risk concerning hostilities in the Middle East.

Further Norwegian outages are scheduled for September which would coincide with an important time for EU countries to refill their gas reserves. The European commission has relaxed some of the rules regarding the refill levels, now permitting countries to hit the 90% reserve level at anytime between October 1st and December 1st, but it will still lead to many nations needing to make purchases before that time. There has also been talks in France of nuclear reactors potentially needing to be shut down for important maintenance work. This could lead to decreased energy availability at a time when large purchases are necessitated by European regulations. For those with renewals in the final quarter of the year, now may be the best time to look at getting quotes before a supply squeeze could potentially cause prices to rise in the final few months of the year.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs. 

14 August 2025
Back Billing Recently we have been seeing an increase in suppliers issuing invoices for charges that are more than 12 months old. In this article we will be reviewing why you may not be liable for these charges. What Is a Back Bill? A back bill is issued when your supplier discovers that they haven’t accurately invoiced you. This can be due to missed readings, estimated charges, or issues with obtaining consumption data. These bills can include charges dating back weeks, months, or even over a year, leading to unexpected costs. The 12-Month Back-Billing Rule Under Ofgem’s rules, suppliers cannot charge domestic energy users or microbusinesses for energy used more than 12 months ago, provided that you: Never received an accurate bill for that period (even if requested) Were never informed of charges through a statement of account Had a Direct Debit but it was set too low to cover the actual charges When You May Be Asked to Pay for Energy Consumed More Than 12 Months Ago The only scenario where you could be charged for older energy usage is if the issue is deemed to be your fault. For example, if you deliberately prevented meter access or ignored billing requests, your supplier can back-bill you for up to six years.
3 August 2025
July was a month that saw an England international football team lift a trophy and the unfamiliar events weren’t just limited to the sporting arena. For the first time in recent memory, it wasn’t geopolitics and international conflicts that were the main drivers behind movements in the energy market. In this article we review the factors that did cause energy prices to change and how prices are likely to move for the remainder of 2025.
29 July 2025
What is the EII Support Levy? As of April this year, a new charge called the EII Support Levy may have begun appearing on your invoices. The ESL has been introduced by the government to fund the Exemption Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). This essentially means that businesses not categorised as operating in Energy Intensive Industries will be offsetting the costs of businesses whose SIC codes do fall under the EII umbrella. This is being done to ensure UK businesses with large energy costs can remain competitive internationally. Which businesses need to pay it? All non-domestic UK energy users who don’t have a SIC code that classifies them as being a part of an Energy Intensive Industry will need to pay it. How the charge is applied will be at the discretion of suppliers with some suppliers yet to confirm exactly how they will be applying the charge.
24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 
19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.
1 June 2025
May Review By Adam Novakovic As Summer kicked into gear, we saw a small jump in the wholesale energy markets at the start of month before the prices began to stabilise.
1 May 2025
April 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic For some, April can be the cruellest of months. We saw Earthquakes cause damage in Thailand, volcanic eruptions near Iceland, and the month ended with blackouts in the Iberian peninsula. The latter highlighting the issues with switching to renewable energy sources too quickly, at the expense of energy grid stability. However, April can also be a time of great optimism as we exit the winter months and head towards the summer. The energy markets gave us plenty of reasons to be happy in the past month as wholesale gas prices fell over 20%. This drop was also seen in the gas markets for Winter’25 (a 20.42% drop) and for Summer’26 (a 14.17% drop) as prices fell, representing a good buying opportunity for those on flexible contracts.
20 April 2025
TCR Banding: A Powerful but Overlooked Way to Lower Energy Costs for UK Businesses As UK business energy prices continue to fluctuate at historically high levels, companies across the country are under increasing pressure to find reliable ways to lower energy costs. With government levies, non-commodity charges, and market instability all contributing to rising bills, businesses must now look beyond traditional energy-saving methods to manage their expenses. In previous articles we looked at how to lower kVA charges , and published a guide on how to lower business energy costs . One such method gaining attention is TCR Banding — a relatively lesser-known, yet impactful solution for reducing DUoS and TUoS charges. What Is TCR Banding? TCR Banding is part of the Targeted Charging Review (TCR) , a reform introduced by Ofgem in 2022. Its goal is to ensure a fairer, more consistent system for charging UK electricity users for their share of the grid's maintenance costs — specifically the Transmission Use of System (TUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges. Instead of charges being based on when energy is used (which could be manipulated by large users), charges are now fixed and based on how much energy is typically consumed. This is where TCR Bands come into play. What Are TCR Bands? TCR Bands categorize electricity meters into different levels based on their voltage type and agreed kVA capacity. These bands determine the fixed DUoS and TUoS charges applied to a business's energy bill. For Low Voltage (LV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 80 kVA Band 2: 81 – 150 kVA Band 3: 151 – 231 kVA Band 4: 232 kVA and above For High Voltage (HV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 422 kVA Band 2: 423 – 1,000 kVA Band 3: 1,001 – 1,800 kVA Band 4: 1,801 kVA and above The higher your TCR band, the more you'll pay in fixed DUoS and TUoS charges — making it essential for UK businesses to ensure their banding is correctly assigned. Who Assigns Your TCR Band? Your Distribution Network Operator (DNO) is responsible for assigning your TCR Band. DNOs are regional companies that manage the physical infrastructure delivering electricity to your site. They’re also the ones compensated through DUoS and TUoS charges shown on your business energy invoice.
31 March 2025
March 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic As we exit the winter season and the weather begins to improve, the energy news has – once again -- been dominated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
4 March 2025
February Review By Adam Novakovic With consumer spending declining and OFGEM raising their price cap, you would be forgiven for seeing February as a month where negative news was at the forefront, but in the energy markets, this was not the case.