4 December 2025

May Review 2024

In a month that saw the football season draw to a close with a surprise result in the FA cup final, there were surprises in the energy markets as prices continued to rise despite most European countries currently boasting healthy gas reserves.


The month began with the Viking Link interconnector – which transports gas between the UK and Denmark – receiving a Guinness world record for being the longest land and subsea High Voltage Direct Current interconnector.


However, the supply of gas from Scandinavia to the UK proved to be a negative story throughout the month. Norwegian gas fields: Kolsnes, Troll, Gassco all suffered from lower output due to maintenance during May. The timely resumption of production following maintenance has been historically described as “unreliable”, and the market responded with caution as prices steadily rose. The quick return to normal production levels will help to restore confidence in the market, but any further negative news is likely to be met with further rises in price.


Closer to home, there was more negative news on the production side. In recent months UK energy production has dropped 6.8% when compared to the previous year. A large part of this is due to the increased focus on renewable energy sources. We also saw strikes announced at the Dounreay power plant in Scotland, which is set to contribute towards lower production levels in the UK.


Another factor contributing to the rising energy prices has been due to changes in demand in the LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) market. Extreme temperatures in Asia have led to an increase in LNG purchases. This has occurred at the same time power issues impacted LNG production in Malaysia, and production was halted at an export facility in Australia. The only positive during this time was the Freeport facility in the US returning to full capacity and helping somewhat ease the strain in the LNG market.


Further pressure on the supply of energy to Europe came from Austria. While many European nations stopped receiving gas from Gazprom in 2022, Austria continued to import gas from the Russian company. However, it now seems as though the Austrian government will look to end their reliance on Russian imports in a move that could have a ripple effect on gas prices throughout Europe.


As in previous months, geopolitical instability is still a key factor in rising energy prices. Concerns about the Russia/Ukraine conflict persist, and new fears have emerged that Iran could block shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of the world’s LNG exports pass through the strait, with the UK being reliant on imports from Qatar. If this problem worsens, it will put further pressure on the LNG market and lead to prices rising further.


Domestically, a study conducted by Centrica has shown that energy costs are still a big concern for UK businesses. One third of businesses surveyed stated that unpredictable energy costs have limited their growth in the past year. More than half of UK businesses are now looking at onsite generation as a way of helping reduce their energy costs. If your business is struggling with energy costs and you would like to talk about the options available to you, send me an email (adam@seemoreenergy.co.uk) and we can discuss the methods available to help lower your energy spend.


Outlook

OFGEM lowered their price cap for the 3rd quarter of 2024 by 7%. Despite the factors that have negatively impacted prices in the last month, this shows there is still a consensus that prices will continue to drop for the remainder of the year.


Consultancy firm Cornwall Insights also predicted a drop in energy prices during the coming quarter. Additionally, they foresaw a small price rise in October, before a further drop in January of 2025. Although it should be noted that they acknowledged the unpredictability of the energy markets at this time.


One of the main factors that will affect prices in the coming month will be how quickly full production can be resumed in Norway, with less downtime for maintenance expected in June than in May. If full output can be quickly resumed and the LNG market doesn’t suffer any further issues with supply then it’s likely prices will fall, however, news out of the Middle East should be watched closely, as further disruptions to imports from Qatar could see prices rise further.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs.

February 2025 Review

by Craig Watson • 27 March 2026
With consumer spending declining and OFGEM raising their price cap, you would be forgiven for seeing February as a month where negative news was at the forefront, but in the energy markets, this was not the case.

2024 Review

by Craig Watson • 27 March 2026
In a year that began with falling energy prices, there were recurring catalysts that led to prices climbing steadily higher. Geopolitical uncertainty and the perennial threat of escalating conflicts meant fear would maintain a constant presence in the wholesale markets. We will look back at the key energy stories from 2024, and how the energy markets are likely to shape up in 2025. Quarter 1  The year began with cautious optimism as the UK’s gas reserve levels were healthy and prices for the Summer’24 season were in freefall. In February, prices pulled back to their lowest levels since 2021, and for the first time in a while, we identified that there was greater potential for upside risk than for further downward price movement: “ there now (exists) an asymmetrical element of risk should the market encounter a supply-side problem of significance. ” During February we had advised customers on flexible contracts that this was an ideal time for making purchases. March would see prices begin to ascend again as international conflict would create problems with LNG imports, and we would highlight the geopolitical risks as an area for concern moving forwards: “ fears remain and there are potential negative catalysts that could lead to prices rising further, with the main factors to watch out for being based on geopolitical unrest. “ For a business that purchases their energy in advance, this quarter was the optimal time for purchasing during 2024. In February, electricity prices for Winter’25 were down to 7.75p/Kwh, and as low as 6.05p/Kwh for Summer’25. Winter’25 ended the year with prices above 11.1p/Kwh, with Summer’25 prices exceeding 9p/Kwh. For a company that uses 500,000Kwh of electricity per month, the difference between buying at the February low point compared to today’s prices would represent a yearly saving of over £200,000.
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