August Review

4 September 2023

Review

With house prices falling, interest rates rising, and football returning, August was an eventful month in the UK. However, the news affecting our gas and electricity outlook wasn’t limited to the borders of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as events across the EU, Russia, and Australia impacted price movements.


August started with wholesale gas prices slowly rising, before a large increase on the 9th. Prices would hold around this level until the 24th, when they dropped the levels seen before the rise of 15 days previous. The final week of the month saw prices steadily increase to end the month over 20% higher than they were at the end of July. 

What was responsible for this increase in price?


The major story affecting UK gas prices this month was the threat of a strike from Australian liquid natural gas (LNG) suppliers.  Rumours began circulating that workers at the Chevron plants in Western Australia were considering striking, and this led to an almost 30% increase on the 9th. Australia is responsible for around 10% of global LNG exports, so the impact of these strikes would not simply be limited to a few geographical markets. 

After prices dropped in the days immediately following the initial rumours, they rose again on the 21st when a union statement was released stating that a strike could take place within 2 weeks.

However, on the 24th it was announced that an agreement in principle had been reached with the unions. With fears quelled, it seemed as though price would stay around the range seen before the initial rumours of industrial action. 

On the 29th there proved to be one more twist, as it was announced that a strike will take place from the 7th of September. This didn’t have a particularly negative impact on the market, but leaves the door open for supply disruptions in September and remains an issue with the potential to cause disruption. 

 

Domestically, there were concerns that hospitality industries are being mistreated by some suppliers. UKHospitality, the trade body representing the hospitality industry, called upon Ofgem to review issues facing the sector, including: requiring large deposits, refusing to work with the sector, or refusing to renegotiate contracts. Ofgem is currently consulting with the hospitality industry to conduct a thorough market review.


In more positive news, European gas storage levels are reaching capacity faster than anticipated. Last year a target was set to have gas storage capacity at 90% by November 1st 2023, a target that has now seemingly been reached. While unexpectedly cold weather can still cause larger than anticipated gas consumption, healthy reserve levels should help the continent avoid the large spikes in price seen in 2022.

Despite the success in achieving a healthy reserve capacity, it appears that not all EU goals are on course to being achieved. The EU aims to no longer be importers of Russian gas by 2027, yet the first 7 months of this year saw Belgium and Spain as the 2nd and 3rd largest importers of LNG. Reliance on some form of Russian gas seems inevitable in the near term, as the EU seeks to find further ways to reduce gas consumption.

 


Outlook

Going forward it seems as though the gas costs involved in UK electricity generation are likely to increase. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero have forecast that these costs will increase by 35% by 2025. Although it wasn’t all doom and gloom, as the same report stated that renewable energy generation costs are expected to fall during this same time period, with solar and offshore wind looking like the most viable options in offsetting the increased gas costs.


Looking ahead to 2024, it seems gas and oil production in the North sea is likely to be reduced. Ithaca energy announced that they will be reducing their North sea oil and gas production as a response to the UK government’s windfall tax. The Energy Profits Levy has led to the cancellation and deferral of numerous projects that had been slated to take place during the next 18 months.


While the EU has accumulated a significant gas reserve level, we are still seeing threats to the supply side having the largest impact on price. As we head into the winter months we can expect any news regarding supply side disruption, or any news regarding colder than expect winter months to have a negative impact on price. For those looking at securing new contracts in the coming months, or purchasing their winter energy, then it seems that now may best time to buy and avoid leaving your energy costs at the mercy of the news cycle or weather forecasts.     

ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know

8 September 2025
ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know The Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme (ESOS) is back for another cycle. Phase 4 officially began on 6 December 2023, and while the final compliance deadline of 5 December 2027 may feel a long way off, now is the time to start preparing. If your business was in scope for Phase 3, you’ll already be familiar with the process of calculating energy use, submitting an action plan, and reporting on progress. Phase 4 builds on that foundation, with a few important changes to be aware of. Who needs to comply with ESOS Phase 4? The rules on eligibility haven’t changed since the last phase. ESOS applies to “large undertakings” in the UK, meaning your organisation will qualify if, on the qualification date of 31 December 2026, it meets all of the following criteria: Based and registered in the UK Employs 250 or more people Has an annual turnover above £44 million Has an annual balance sheet total over £38 million To see if your business is eligible, visit our site and answer the questions to see if you should be participating in ESOS phase 4. Even if you don’t meet the criteria right now, if you cross the threshold on the qualification date, you’ll fall into scope and must submit your compliance notification by 5 December 2027. If your business previously qualified but no longer does, you’ll need to submit a “Do Not Qualify” (DNQ) notification to the Environment Agency through the online MESOS portal. Key requirements for Phase 4 Phase 3 introduced the requirement for organisations to create an Action Plan that set out how you intend to cut energy use and when. That same principle continues in Phase 4, along with mandatory progress reporting in the years that follow. However, there are some updates to note: Action plan progress must now be included within your ESOS assessment. If commitments aren’t met, your business will need to explain why. Display Energy Certificates (DECs) and Green Deal Assessments (GDAs) are no longer valid routes to compliance. While net zero reporting will not yet be mandatory, you can choose to adopt the new PAS 51215 standards for voluntary energy and decarbonisation reporting. This could give your organisation a head start before net zero requirements arrive in Phase 5.

August 2025 Review

1 September 2025
August Review By Adam Novakovic August was a month that saw the return of domestic football and the return of one of the most prolific energy narratives of the last 5 years, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine once again dominated the headlines.

Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy

29 August 2025
Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy: What It Means for Your Electricity Bills From this autumn, UK businesses will see a new charge appear on their electricity invoices: the Nuclear Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Levy. This charge will help finance new nuclear power stations such as Sizewell C, but it also means yet another non-commodity cost will be added to bills. What is the RAB model? The Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model is not new and has been used for decades to fund water networks, energy grids, and other large-scale infrastructure. Instead of waiting until projects are completed, it allows investors to receive steady returns during construction. The aim is to lower the overall cost of borrowing by sharing risk between developers, government, and consumers. In 2022, the Nuclear Energy Financing Act cleared the way for this model to be applied to nuclear energy. The logic is that by reducing financial risk, investors will be more willing to commit to long-term projects. For the government, it helps accelerate the nuclear build-out that is essential to the UK’s 2030 clean power targets. For consumers, however, it means paying towards new power plants years before they produce a single kilowatt-hour and before they can help lower unit rates.

Why electricity prices keep going up

21 August 2025
Why electricity prices keep going up By Adam Novakovic Electricity has always been more than just a utility it is an essential component in every part of UK business. Yet in recent years, costs have been climbing steadily, and today’s bills are weighed down by more than just wholesale market prices. There can be long periods of time where wholesale prices remain stable or decrease, yet the amount businesses are paying for their electricity continues to rise. A large part of the increase comes from policy decisions. Most notably the way the UK has chosen to fund decarbonisation, its reliance on renewables, and its failure to make a serious commitment to nuclear energy.

Back Billing

14 August 2025
Back Billing Recently we have been seeing an increase in suppliers issuing invoices for charges that are more than 12 months old. In this article we will be reviewing why you may not be liable for these charges. What Is a Back Bill? A back bill is issued when your supplier discovers that they haven’t accurately invoiced you. This can be due to missed readings, estimated charges, or issues with obtaining consumption data. These bills can include charges dating back weeks, months, or even over a year, leading to unexpected costs. The 12-Month Back-Billing Rule Under Ofgem’s rules, suppliers cannot charge domestic energy users or microbusinesses for energy used more than 12 months ago, provided that you: Never received an accurate bill for that period (even if requested) Were never informed of charges through a statement of account Had a Direct Debit but it was set too low to cover the actual charges When You May Be Asked to Pay for Energy Consumed More Than 12 Months Ago The only scenario where you could be charged for older energy usage is if the issue is deemed to be your fault. For example, if you deliberately prevented meter access or ignored billing requests, your supplier can back-bill you for up to six years.

July 2025 Review

3 August 2025
July was a month that saw an England international football team lift a trophy and the unfamiliar events weren’t just limited to the sporting arena. For the first time in recent memory, it wasn’t geopolitics and international conflicts that were the main drivers behind movements in the energy market. In this article we review the factors that did cause energy prices to change and how prices are likely to move for the remainder of 2025.

The EII Support Levy (ESL)

29 July 2025
What is the EII Support Levy? As of April this year, a new charge called the EII Support Levy may have begun appearing on your invoices. The ESL has been introduced by the government to fund the Exemption Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). This essentially means that businesses not categorised as operating in Energy Intensive Industries will be offsetting the costs of businesses whose SIC codes do fall under the EII umbrella. This is being done to ensure UK businesses with large energy costs can remain competitive internationally. Which businesses need to pay it? All non-domestic UK energy users who don’t have a SIC code that classifies them as being a part of an Energy Intensive Industry will need to pay it. How the charge is applied will be at the discretion of suppliers with some suppliers yet to confirm exactly how they will be applying the charge.

June 2025 Review

30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.

The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy

24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 

How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices

19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.