September Review

4 October 2023

September Review

By Adam Novakovic, Energy Markets Consultant



After a calm start to the month, September saw wholesale prices rise, with the wholesale gas market seeing it’s highest daily close since April. In this article we’ll be taking a look at the drivers behind these price movements, and what we can expect in the coming months.


Some now perceive the uncertainty in the market as a reflection of the uncertainty and lack of direction in the UK’s energy policy.

E.ON chief executive Chris Norbury called out this lack of policy certainty and “lack of ambition in terms of the investment in energy efficiency in the UK”, when he spoke at the Commons Energy Security and Net Zero Committee. With a large part of energy policy now being focused on Net Zero – a policy that will almost certainly increase the price of electricity -- a lack of investment in widely-used infrastructure will continue to have a negative impact on the rising transmission costs.


Last month we discussed the impact of potential strikes at Australian LNG plants, and how it impacted the wholesale energy markets.

The affect of this continued into September as industrial action commenced on the 8th, seeing prices rise 20% over the following week (although there may have been other factors contributing to this rise). In spite of the strikes and the price rises, no shipments were reported to be delayed.  The industrial action has now ended, as a deal that offers improved pay and working conditions has been agreed upon.  

Some may see the impact, of strikes that didn’t result in any delays to shipments, as a sign of fragility in the market. From a cynical perspective, should somebody wish to create a sharp rise in price, reports or threats of further strikes could be seen as a way of creating short term increases in price.  However, this may serve as a reminder to market participants that there is a risk of overreacting to prospective disruptions, and people may be less inclined to “panic buy” on the next rumours of production being impacted.


At the same time the strikes were occurring in Australia, there were extended disruptions to gas production in Norway. While the Troll field maintenance has been known for a while, and the supply disruption has been factored into the market, the proposed restart was delayed by a week. Production has since re-commenced, albeit at a reduced capacity. With Norway being Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas, any further disruptions to supply will likely have a significant impact upon the energy wholesale market.


Outlook

We previously stated that we believe we have seen the market low for this year, and there are more factors that could send prices higher than factors which could see a return to the June lows.  We still believe this to be the case, and that the most sensible approach would be for those on flex contracts to look at locking in a significant % of their winter demand.


While the market seems to be cautious or even nervous, and with few making exact predictions, independent researcher Cornwall Insight have forecast that prices will rise almost 10% between October of this year and January 2024. 


This ties in with a warning from Jonathan Brearley, Chief Executive of OFGEM, who stated that -- in spite of international markets being more stable than this time last year -- for many, the prices they pay this winter could be higher than last year. Citing the lack of governmental support, this warning was delivered before MPs, as Mr. Brearley called for improvements to be made to the framework.


Following a survey from energy supplier Valda, it seems like these concerns about increased prices are not lost on UK SMEs. The survey found that:

·       67 per cent of business owners do not feel the government understands their needs.

·       Three-quarters say they have been neglected in favour of more focused support on consumers and larger businesses.

·       Only a third of businesses felt that the less generous Energy Bill Discount Scheme (EBDS) that followed is providing adequate                support.


With many small businesses still concerned about their energy costs, it is an important time to make sure you are not paying any more than necessary and exploring all the energy cost-reduction options available to you. If you require any assistance or guidance with your energy spend, feel free to contact me at adam@seemoreenergy.co.uk for a free consultation with a team that is experienced in helping UK businesses with their energy needs.




21 October 2025
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14 October 2025
In the last decade, over 50 UK energy suppliers have gone out of business. With Tomato Energy being issued with a provisional order this week, it seems as though their name will be the latest to be added to the list of defunct suppliers including Bulb, Avro, and Spark Energy. For customers of a supplier that is on the brink of going out of business, this can be a scary time, but there is a process in place to ensure they are not at risk of losing their supply. Who is responsible? OFGEM (The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets) are a non-ministerial government department tasked with regulating the energy markets and networks. In cases where a supplier goes out of business, OFGEM provide a safety net to ensure that customers supply won’t be disrupted. What is the process? OFGEM may elect to appoint an administrator. If this is the path they choose, then no action is necessary from the supplier’s customers. At some point, the administrator may choose to shut down the supplier, at which point, all existing customers will be moved to a new supplier of the administrator’s choosing.
6 October 2025
Market-Wide Half-Hourly Settlement (MHHS) What is MHHS? MHHS stands for Market-Wide Half-Hourly Settlement. Currently, most electricity is billed based on estimates or meter reads that can be provided monthly, quarterly, or sporadically. With MHHS, electricity consumption will be accounted for and billed in 30-minute blocks. The idea is that with more precise, time-based data, suppliers and networks can match supply and demand more accurately. This helps reduce waste and allow more flexibility in how electricity is used across the system. Who does it apply to? Previously, only large industrial and commercial users needed to have half-hourly meters, but MHHS is intended to apply across the whole electricity market in Great Britain. This includes domestic consumers, small businesses, large industrial users, and everything in between. That means most electricity users will be indirectly affected, even if they don’t see anything change in how their meter looks, the rules behind billing and settlement will shift behind the scenes.
1 October 2025
September Review By Adam Novakovic We have reached the time of year where the summer months have started to fade and we begin to think about the colder seasons. This month saw the UK government recognise Palestine as a country, although they still seem unable to recognise the harm their energy policies are causing UK businesses. With further charges set to be added to UK energy bills and rising non-commodity costs, it was a relief that wholesale energy prices remained fairly flat throughout September. A recent report from independent analysts Cornwall Insights revealed that large energy users who aren’t covered by Government schemes could find that they are paying a further £450,000/year in non-commodity costs by 2030. With non-commodity costs such as DUOS and TUOS charges –which are used to fund the infrastructure responsible for the transmission of electricity – now accounting for over 2/3rds of total electricity costs for some businesses, it is of growing concern that these charges are set to continue rising. With the TUOS charges for 26/27 expected to increase significantly , the non-commodity charges are starting to have a negative impact on UK businesses ability to compete against foreign businesses with fewer governmental charges on their energy bills. This growing concern is yet to be addressed but could have a huge impact on many industries in the next year.
25 September 2025
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17 September 2025
How TNUoS costs are set to rise As the UK pushes towards a low-carbon energy system, there has been a sharp rise in costs for businesses connected to the grid. The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has released its latest five-year outlook on Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges, and -- from April 2026 – energy costs will rise significantly to fund the country’s energy transition. What Are TNUoS Charges? NESO uses the funds from TNUoS charges to build, operate, and maintain the high-voltage transmission network across Britain. The forecasts for 2026/27 have indicated that NESO will be looking to almost double the revenue generated in the previous year. While suppliers pass these charges on to both households and businesses, the scale of the increases ahead will be most acutely felt by large energy users.
8 September 2025
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21 August 2025
Why electricity prices keep going up By Adam Novakovic Electricity has always been more than just a utility it is an essential component in every part of UK business. Yet in recent years, costs have been climbing steadily, and today’s bills are weighed down by more than just wholesale market prices. There can be long periods of time where wholesale prices remain stable or decrease, yet the amount businesses are paying for their electricity continues to rise. A large part of the increase comes from policy decisions. Most notably the way the UK has chosen to fund decarbonisation, its reliance on renewables, and its failure to make a serious commitment to nuclear energy.