December Review

4 January 2024

December Review

By Adam Novakovic

While Santa may not have brought you everything you desired this Christmas, there was plenty of festive cheer regarding UK energy prices. Both gas and electricity fell throughout the month, with wholesale prices going into January down approximately 25% since the beginning of December.


Energy prices had begun to drop at the end of November and that continued throughout the final month of 2023. A combination of well-stocked gas-reserves throughout Europe, and milder than expected weather conditions, served to reduce the fears that had been propping up prices. As we move into 2024, the weather is expected to steadily improve from after the 2nd week of January, meaning most of the reserve supply will remain untouched. This will leave the UK in a healthy position as LNG imports continue to arrive, and gas flows from Norway remain steady.


As we’ve seen in the previous 2 years, it is not always events close to home that are responsible for dictating energy prices. The major recent price movements have largely been caused by geopolitical unrest and the threat of conflicts that could disrupt gas flows into Europe. 

Throughout December there were incidents in the Middle East that looked as though they could impact energy prices, but ultimately failed to have much of an effect.   There were multiple reports of cargo ships being attacked in the Red Sea, although US military intervention has served to keep those supply routes open. While for now it doesn’t seem as though these skirmishes will have any impact on LNG being transported from the region, it does remain an area that will need to be monitored as any significant disruptions would likely have a negative impact on the wholesale energy markets.


As conflict continues between Russia and Ukraine, it appears as though Russia have been ramping up their attacks and have been targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Reports are now suggesting that Russia are switching their targets to more military specific locations, but given the previous significant impact of the conflict, it remains another area that requires careful monitoring.


Back on UK shores, there was welcome government backing for small businesses as it was proposed that businesses with up to 50 employees will receive support from the Energy Ombudsman when in dispute with their energy supplier. Currently, the support only covers businesses with up to 10 employees.     


Outlook

As per the last few months, the key price moves will likely be dictated by the weather and international incidents that threaten energy supply. With forecasts suggesting that the weather won’t be of too much concern this winter, that leaves threats to the supply side as the main risk. The market currently doesn’t seem to be as nervous regarding bad news as it was just a couple of months ago. We had previously seen price spikes on threats of strikes at Australian LNG plants, but now the market seems more sanguine when faced with attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and cargo ships being attacked along key supply routes. 

Prices are currently approaching the summer low points, but for those looking to purchase energy, now could represent a great time to de-risk. Should there be a more significant incident – either in the Middle East, or in Ukraine – we could see prices re-test the higher levels seen in October or November, and the potential for a significant upside move seems to offer asymmetrical risk to further potential drops in price.


Looking further ahead, there was positive news in December as approval was given for the Hornsea 3 offshore wind farm. Set to be completed before the end of 2027, this would bolster the UK’s renewable production capacity as well as increasing the level of energy independence.  Although this won’t impact the current prices, it is a positive step for the long-term future of the UK energy market.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs. And if you would like to receive our monthly analysis directly into your inbox each month, sign up for our free reports here.



29 July 2025
What is the EII Support Levy? As of April this year, a new charge called the EII Support Levy may have begun appearing on your invoices. The ESL has been introduced by the government to fund the Exemption Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). This essentially means that businesses not categorised as operating in Energy Intensive Industries will be offsetting the costs of businesses whose SIC codes do fall under the EII umbrella. This is being done to ensure UK businesses with large energy costs can remain competitive internationally. Which businesses need to pay it? All non-domestic UK energy users who don’t have a SIC code that classifies them as being a part of an Energy Intensive Industry will need to pay it. How the charge is applied will be at the discretion of suppliers with some suppliers yet to confirm exactly how they will be applying the charge.
30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.
24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 
19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.
1 June 2025
May Review By Adam Novakovic As Summer kicked into gear, we saw a small jump in the wholesale energy markets at the start of month before the prices began to stabilise.
1 May 2025
April 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic For some, April can be the cruellest of months. We saw Earthquakes cause damage in Thailand, volcanic eruptions near Iceland, and the month ended with blackouts in the Iberian peninsula. The latter highlighting the issues with switching to renewable energy sources too quickly, at the expense of energy grid stability. However, April can also be a time of great optimism as we exit the winter months and head towards the summer. The energy markets gave us plenty of reasons to be happy in the past month as wholesale gas prices fell over 20%. This drop was also seen in the gas markets for Winter’25 (a 20.42% drop) and for Summer’26 (a 14.17% drop) as prices fell, representing a good buying opportunity for those on flexible contracts.
20 April 2025
TCR Banding: A Powerful but Overlooked Way to Lower Energy Costs for UK Businesses As UK business energy prices continue to fluctuate at historically high levels, companies across the country are under increasing pressure to find reliable ways to lower energy costs. With government levies, non-commodity charges, and market instability all contributing to rising bills, businesses must now look beyond traditional energy-saving methods to manage their expenses. In previous articles we looked at how to lower kVA charges , and published a guide on how to lower business energy costs . One such method gaining attention is TCR Banding — a relatively lesser-known, yet impactful solution for reducing DUoS and TUoS charges. What Is TCR Banding? TCR Banding is part of the Targeted Charging Review (TCR) , a reform introduced by Ofgem in 2022. Its goal is to ensure a fairer, more consistent system for charging UK electricity users for their share of the grid's maintenance costs — specifically the Transmission Use of System (TUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges. Instead of charges being based on when energy is used (which could be manipulated by large users), charges are now fixed and based on how much energy is typically consumed. This is where TCR Bands come into play. What Are TCR Bands? TCR Bands categorize electricity meters into different levels based on their voltage type and agreed kVA capacity. These bands determine the fixed DUoS and TUoS charges applied to a business's energy bill. For Low Voltage (LV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 80 kVA Band 2: 81 – 150 kVA Band 3: 151 – 231 kVA Band 4: 232 kVA and above For High Voltage (HV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 422 kVA Band 2: 423 – 1,000 kVA Band 3: 1,001 – 1,800 kVA Band 4: 1,801 kVA and above The higher your TCR band, the more you'll pay in fixed DUoS and TUoS charges — making it essential for UK businesses to ensure their banding is correctly assigned. Who Assigns Your TCR Band? Your Distribution Network Operator (DNO) is responsible for assigning your TCR Band. DNOs are regional companies that manage the physical infrastructure delivering electricity to your site. They’re also the ones compensated through DUoS and TUoS charges shown on your business energy invoice.
31 March 2025
March 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic As we exit the winter season and the weather begins to improve, the energy news has – once again -- been dominated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
4 March 2025
February Review By Adam Novakovic With consumer spending declining and OFGEM raising their price cap, you would be forgiven for seeing February as a month where negative news was at the forefront, but in the energy markets, this was not the case.
3 February 2025
January 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic This January saw the UK record it’s coldest night in 15 years, but there wasn’t much in the way of wind to accompany the cold temperatures of the month. This combination led to more energy being used than expected and lower-than-hoped renewable levels being recorded, as energy prices continued to rise against the backdrop of European gas reserve levels being depleted. January kicked off with the long-expected news that Russian gas supply would cease flowing into continental Europe. Whilst the cessation of this supply had been long planned for, many would have hoped it wouldn’t coincide with a cold snap hitting the continent. The lower-than-expected temperatures have led to energy consumption being higher than anticipated putting a further strain on reserve supplies. While the weather forecasts were making for dim reading, there was some positive news coming from across the Atlantic. Donald Trump -- uncharacteristically for a politician -- had followed through on his pre-election promises and lifted the freeze on US LNG exports. In addition to reallowing exports to be permitted, Trump has also allowed for new US LNG projects to be applied for, this boosts both short and long-term positivity surrounding the gas supply that can be received by Europe. With the cessation of the Russian gas supply occurring instantly from January 1 st , and the restarting of US exports being something that will likely take months before export capacity is fully ramped up, it could be a few months before the positive effects are truly felt. This would coincide with the end the European winter, so it may be the end of March or beginning of April until the market has a more positive response. However, this could also be when European nations look to begin restocking their reserves. For those with renewals in the coming 3 months, now may be the best time to seek prices, as the further depletion of European gas reserves is likely to have a negative impact upon prices. For those whose contract is due for renewal later in the year, it may be best to be patient and wait for the market conditions to change. If your contract is due for renewal later this year and you would like a reminder sent when the market conditions turn more favourable, simply email your contract end date to adam@seemoreenergy.co.uk and we will provide reminders ahead of the renewal, at times when the market is presenting favourable negotiation conditions.