3 December 2025

November Review 2023

In a month that saw data released revealing that the UK economy failed to grow in the 3rd quarter of this year, growing fears around energy prices subsided as wholesale prices dropped from their October highs.


Prices fell steadily throughout the month as it became clear that energy demand remains below the levels recorded in previous years.  These lower wholesale gas prices also led to some power generators turning to gas in favour of coal. This has the effect of lowering carbon prices, and therefore lowering electricity prices.


The EU appear to be well prepared for this winter, announcing that they are currently at 97.5% capacity for gas storage. Analysts are now forecasting that the available supply should exceed the predicted demand, with the possibility of shortages seeming unlikely.


After conflict in the middle east was seen as the main factor when energy prices rose in October, those fears have lessened as Israel recommenced exporting gas in the first week of November.


Closer to home, OFGEM issued guidance on the fair treatment of business customers. Writing to all suppliers, the regulatory body sought to remind suppliers of their duty to treat business customers fairly, specifically referencing how unjust some deemed rates tariffs are. Whether this guidance has any significant impact remains to be seen, but we would still strongly recommend all businesses to avoid going on to deemed rates when their contract expires. If your business requires help with avoiding deemed rates then don’t hesitate to contact us today, we can set up a reminder to get in touch with you before your contract expires to make sure you get the best deal available at that time.


Another way that business customers may be paying more than they need to was also highlighted during November. A study revealed that 40% of eligible business customers are currently unaware of the Energy Intensive Industries discount scheme. If you believe you may be eligible and require help with this scheme, then get in touch and we can assist with you with this process.


Outlook

One of the key short-term factors impacting energy prices will be the weather. While long-term weather forecasting is not 100% accurate, current predictions see this winter as not being particularly cold, with Netweather claiming “temperatures are forecast to be close to the 1991-2020 long-term average. December close to the average, January equal chance of being average or above average and February below average.”

Previously there has been fears that a colder than average winter could increase demand, but this no longer appears to be a large concern.


Looking even further ahead, it appears there is plenty to be positive about in the LNG market. Over the next few years, global production – particularly in the US – will be increasing which suggests the coming years will see far more stable energy prices than the last few years.


Current forecasts are suggesting that around 50% of the UK’s gas reserves may be used this winter, with even the coldest predicted scenarios unlikely to drop reserve levels below 25%. This is more positive news for energy prices, although all depletions from the reserves will likely be replaced over the summer months creating additional demand at a time when gas demand is normally expected to decrease.

February 2025 Review

by Craig Watson • 27 March 2026
With consumer spending declining and OFGEM raising their price cap, you would be forgiven for seeing February as a month where negative news was at the forefront, but in the energy markets, this was not the case.

2024 Review

by Craig Watson • 27 March 2026
In a year that began with falling energy prices, there were recurring catalysts that led to prices climbing steadily higher. Geopolitical uncertainty and the perennial threat of escalating conflicts meant fear would maintain a constant presence in the wholesale markets. We will look back at the key energy stories from 2024, and how the energy markets are likely to shape up in 2025. Quarter 1  The year began with cautious optimism as the UK’s gas reserve levels were healthy and prices for the Summer’24 season were in freefall. In February, prices pulled back to their lowest levels since 2021, and for the first time in a while, we identified that there was greater potential for upside risk than for further downward price movement: “ there now (exists) an asymmetrical element of risk should the market encounter a supply-side problem of significance. ” During February we had advised customers on flexible contracts that this was an ideal time for making purchases. March would see prices begin to ascend again as international conflict would create problems with LNG imports, and we would highlight the geopolitical risks as an area for concern moving forwards: “ fears remain and there are potential negative catalysts that could lead to prices rising further, with the main factors to watch out for being based on geopolitical unrest. “ For a business that purchases their energy in advance, this quarter was the optimal time for purchasing during 2024. In February, electricity prices for Winter’25 were down to 7.75p/Kwh, and as low as 6.05p/Kwh for Summer’25. Winter’25 ended the year with prices above 11.1p/Kwh, with Summer’25 prices exceeding 9p/Kwh. For a company that uses 500,000Kwh of electricity per month, the difference between buying at the February low point compared to today’s prices would represent a yearly saving of over £200,000.
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