January 2025 Review

3 February 2025

January 2025 Review

By Adam Novakovic

This January saw the UK record it’s coldest night in 15 years, but there wasn’t much in the way of wind to accompany the cold temperatures of the month. This combination led to more energy being used than expected and lower-than-hoped renewable levels being recorded, as energy prices continued to rise against the backdrop of European gas reserve levels being depleted.


January kicked off with the long-expected news that Russian gas supply would cease flowing into continental Europe. Whilst the cessation of this supply had been long planned for, many would have hoped it wouldn’t coincide with a cold snap hitting the continent. The lower-than-expected temperatures have led to energy consumption being higher than anticipated putting a further strain on reserve supplies.


While the weather forecasts were making for dim reading, there was some positive news coming from across the Atlantic. Donald Trump -- uncharacteristically for a politician -- had followed through on his pre-election promises and lifted the freeze on US LNG exports. In addition to reallowing exports to be permitted, Trump has also allowed for new US LNG projects to be applied for, this boosts both short and long-term positivity surrounding the gas supply that can be received by Europe.


With the cessation of the Russian gas supply occurring instantly from January 1st, and the restarting of US exports being something that will likely take months before export capacity is fully ramped up, it could be a few months before the positive effects are truly felt. This would coincide with the end the European winter, so it may be the end of March or beginning of April until the market has a more positive response.  However, this could also be when European nations look to begin restocking their reserves.

For those with renewals in the coming 3 months, now may be the best time to seek prices, as the further depletion of European gas reserves is likely to have a negative impact upon prices. For those whose contract is due for renewal later in the year, it may be best to be patient and wait for the market conditions to change. If your contract is due for renewal later this year and you would like a reminder sent when the market conditions turn more favourable, simply email your contract end date to adam@seemoreenergy.co.uk and we will provide reminders ahead of the renewal, at times when the market is presenting favourable negotiation conditions.




With EU countries, they will be mandated to refill their reserve levels to 90% of capacity by November 1st, with other intermediary targets between now and then. This could lead to some predictable buying patterns, as well as forcing EU nations to out bid each other for gas ahead of the deadlines. As a result of this, we are seeing the gas prices for Summer’25 being above the prices for Winter’25. It is rare for summer prices to go above winter prices due to summer traditionally representing a period of lower consumption, but the deadlines will put pressure on European nations to buy that will affect the cycle of gas purchasing in a way that differs from normal years. So, timing the market this year will rely more on an awareness of large scale buying, rather than traditional patterns.

For businesses that are looking to purchase their winter’25 energy, they may consider purchasing some now, to hedge against potential price increases, then buying further in the quiet periods, after the large level purchasing has taken place.


In addition to the cold weather, there were other factors that contributed to spikes in energy prices during January. The US launched new sanctions against Russia, targeting the fleet that transports LNG. This has further diminished Russia’s ability to export LNG on a global scale.

We also saw multiple outages in Norway, and the low wind has had a negative impact on the production from renewables.



Outlook

We know a large amount of purchasing during the next 6 months will be directed by European nations replenishing their gas reserves. By using hard deadlines, the EU is forcing themselves to be uncompetitive and this will allow for the prices to be driven up at times before those deadlines. Their transparency may not work in their favour as sellers will have an awareness of how much needs to be purchased at each stage, and we will likely see small price spikes ahead of the deadlines.


In the short-term, weather is going to remain a key factor for UK energy prices. The possibility of storms remains higher than usual for the coming months, but, while there is the possibility of colder than anticipated weather at the end of February, the remainder of the winter months are expected to witness above-average temperatures for the time of year.


With US exports now back on the table for European buyers, we are seeing a change to the supply/demand balance that drives energy prices. There should be more available supply compared to 2024, and European buyers hopefully won’t be competing with Asian countries hit by extreme weather events. By analysing how and when the new supply is expected to arrive in the European market, we can use this information to advise in greater detail on when energy contracts should be negotiated and when energy purchases should be made.

If that's support that you feel would interest you and your business, get in touch and I'll happily work to create a plan for your energy procurement that works best for you and your business, whilst providing the confidence and accountability that allows you to revert back to the core focus and operations needed in other areas of the organisation.


To learn more about how I can help, feel free to contact me at adam@SeeMoreenergy.co.uk



8 September 2025
ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know The Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme (ESOS) is back for another cycle. Phase 4 officially began on 6 December 2023, and while the final compliance deadline of 5 December 2027 may feel a long way off, now is the time to start preparing. If your business was in scope for Phase 3, you’ll already be familiar with the process of calculating energy use, submitting an action plan, and reporting on progress. Phase 4 builds on that foundation, with a few important changes to be aware of. Who needs to comply with ESOS Phase 4? The rules on eligibility haven’t changed since the last phase. ESOS applies to “large undertakings” in the UK, meaning your organisation will qualify if, on the qualification date of 31 December 2026, it meets all of the following criteria: Based and registered in the UK Employs 250 or more people Has an annual turnover above £44 million Has an annual balance sheet total over £38 million To see if your business is eligible, visit our site and answer the questions to see if you should be participating in ESOS phase 4. Even if you don’t meet the criteria right now, if you cross the threshold on the qualification date, you’ll fall into scope and must submit your compliance notification by 5 December 2027. If your business previously qualified but no longer does, you’ll need to submit a “Do Not Qualify” (DNQ) notification to the Environment Agency through the online MESOS portal. Key requirements for Phase 4 Phase 3 introduced the requirement for organisations to create an Action Plan that set out how you intend to cut energy use and when. That same principle continues in Phase 4, along with mandatory progress reporting in the years that follow. However, there are some updates to note: Action plan progress must now be included within your ESOS assessment. If commitments aren’t met, your business will need to explain why. Display Energy Certificates (DECs) and Green Deal Assessments (GDAs) are no longer valid routes to compliance. While net zero reporting will not yet be mandatory, you can choose to adopt the new PAS 51215 standards for voluntary energy and decarbonisation reporting. This could give your organisation a head start before net zero requirements arrive in Phase 5.
1 September 2025
August Review By Adam Novakovic August was a month that saw the return of domestic football and the return of one of the most prolific energy narratives of the last 5 years, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine once again dominated the headlines.
29 August 2025
Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy: What It Means for Your Electricity Bills From this autumn, UK businesses will see a new charge appear on their electricity invoices: the Nuclear Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Levy. This charge will help finance new nuclear power stations such as Sizewell C, but it also means yet another non-commodity cost will be added to bills. What is the RAB model? The Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model is not new and has been used for decades to fund water networks, energy grids, and other large-scale infrastructure. Instead of waiting until projects are completed, it allows investors to receive steady returns during construction. The aim is to lower the overall cost of borrowing by sharing risk between developers, government, and consumers. In 2022, the Nuclear Energy Financing Act cleared the way for this model to be applied to nuclear energy. The logic is that by reducing financial risk, investors will be more willing to commit to long-term projects. For the government, it helps accelerate the nuclear build-out that is essential to the UK’s 2030 clean power targets. For consumers, however, it means paying towards new power plants years before they produce a single kilowatt-hour and before they can help lower unit rates.
21 August 2025
Why electricity prices keep going up By Adam Novakovic Electricity has always been more than just a utility it is an essential component in every part of UK business. Yet in recent years, costs have been climbing steadily, and today’s bills are weighed down by more than just wholesale market prices. There can be long periods of time where wholesale prices remain stable or decrease, yet the amount businesses are paying for their electricity continues to rise. A large part of the increase comes from policy decisions. Most notably the way the UK has chosen to fund decarbonisation, its reliance on renewables, and its failure to make a serious commitment to nuclear energy.
14 August 2025
Back Billing Recently we have been seeing an increase in suppliers issuing invoices for charges that are more than 12 months old. In this article we will be reviewing why you may not be liable for these charges. What Is a Back Bill? A back bill is issued when your supplier discovers that they haven’t accurately invoiced you. This can be due to missed readings, estimated charges, or issues with obtaining consumption data. These bills can include charges dating back weeks, months, or even over a year, leading to unexpected costs. The 12-Month Back-Billing Rule Under Ofgem’s rules, suppliers cannot charge domestic energy users or microbusinesses for energy used more than 12 months ago, provided that you: Never received an accurate bill for that period (even if requested) Were never informed of charges through a statement of account Had a Direct Debit but it was set too low to cover the actual charges When You May Be Asked to Pay for Energy Consumed More Than 12 Months Ago The only scenario where you could be charged for older energy usage is if the issue is deemed to be your fault. For example, if you deliberately prevented meter access or ignored billing requests, your supplier can back-bill you for up to six years.
3 August 2025
July was a month that saw an England international football team lift a trophy and the unfamiliar events weren’t just limited to the sporting arena. For the first time in recent memory, it wasn’t geopolitics and international conflicts that were the main drivers behind movements in the energy market. In this article we review the factors that did cause energy prices to change and how prices are likely to move for the remainder of 2025.
29 July 2025
What is the EII Support Levy? As of April this year, a new charge called the EII Support Levy may have begun appearing on your invoices. The ESL has been introduced by the government to fund the Exemption Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). This essentially means that businesses not categorised as operating in Energy Intensive Industries will be offsetting the costs of businesses whose SIC codes do fall under the EII umbrella. This is being done to ensure UK businesses with large energy costs can remain competitive internationally. Which businesses need to pay it? All non-domestic UK energy users who don’t have a SIC code that classifies them as being a part of an Energy Intensive Industry will need to pay it. How the charge is applied will be at the discretion of suppliers with some suppliers yet to confirm exactly how they will be applying the charge.
30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.
24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 
19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.