2024 Review

6 January 2025

2024 Review

By Adam Novakovic

In a year that began with falling energy prices, there were recurring catalysts that led to prices climbing steadily higher. Geopolitical uncertainty and the perennial threat of escalating conflicts meant fear would maintain a constant presence in the wholesale markets. We will look back at the key energy stories from 2024, and how the energy markets are likely to shape up in 2025.


Quarter 1

The year began with cautious optimism as the UK’s gas reserve levels were healthy and prices for the Summer’24 season were in freefall. In February, prices pulled back to their lowest levels since 2021, and for the first time in a while, we identified that there was greater potential for upside risk than for further downward price movement:
 “there now (exists) an asymmetrical element of risk should the market encounter a supply-side problem of significance.”


During February we had advised customers on flexible contracts that this was an ideal time for making purchases.

March would see prices begin to ascend again as international conflict would create problems with LNG imports, and we would highlight the geopolitical risks as an area for concern moving forwards:
“fears remain and there are potential negative catalysts that could lead to prices rising further, with the main factors to watch out for being based on geopolitical unrest.“


For a business that purchases their energy in advance, this quarter was the optimal time for purchasing during 2024. In February, electricity prices for Winter’25 were down to 7.75p/Kwh, and as low as 6.05p/Kwh for Summer’25. Winter’25 ended the year with prices above 11.1p/Kwh, with Summer’25 prices exceeding 9p/Kwh. 

For a company that uses 500,000Kwh of electricity per month, the difference between buying at the February low point compared to today’s prices would represent a yearly saving of over £200,000.

Quarter 2

A colder-than-forecast April, combined with Norwegian gas production outages, led to prices continuing to rise. The disruptions to gas supply from Norway would be a prominent factor in price rises throughout the quarter as the threat of global conflicts disrupting LNG supplies further impacted the supply-side of the market.

In May, we highlighted the impact that global conflicts could have on energy prices:
“news out of the Middle East should be watched closely, as further disruptions to imports from Qatar could see prices rise further.”

Prices continued to rise in June as concerns regarding these conflicts escalated.

Gas reserve levels remained high but the UK’s reliance on imports led to fears in the energy markets, and this harmed businesses with high-energy consumption more than anybody else. While prices kept increasing it became more important for businesses to take necessary steps in reducing their consumption. To aid with this, we released our guide on helping manufacturing businesses lower their energy consumption and keep costs low: SeeMore Energy - Giving businesses that 'Lightbulb' moment...

Quarter 3

It had seemed as though prices were set to drop as we entered the second half of the year, but Hurricane Beryl hitting the Freeport LNG plant in the US and Iran being dragged into conflict in the Middle East put a halt to any optimism.

In July, we had seen the risk posed by upcoming outages at Norwegian gas fields:
“A potential problem that could impact prices in August is the Norwegian gas fields scheduled maintenance”. This would prove to be a factor behind price rises over the following 6 weeks as other factors would limit alternative sources of supply:

In addition to these issues, Russian and Ukrainian forces would clash near the Sudzha gas metering station creating concerns about energy security in the region. While heatwaves in East Asia were causing countries in the region to purchase more LNG than expected, increasing competition and prices in the global gas market.

By the end of September we were reflecting on price movement for the remainder of the year, and when we could expect energy prices to come down:
“While prices may be set to go higher on the news of further conflicts, there are reasons to be optimistic about the direction of energy prices beyond the coming winter. In 2025 we should see more LNG available to the market as new supplies”


For a business that consumes 1,000,000Kwh of electricity during the Winter’24 period, purchasing at the time we had recommended in February (when prices were 6.85p/Kwh), compared to the peak price of August’24 (when prices hit 11.12p/Kwh), would represent an over £30,000 saving just for the winter period. Further highlighting the importance of timing purchases and how negotiating energy contracts at the right time can lead to significant savings.

Quarter 4

In the final quarter of the year the story of the ceasing Russian gas supply to Europe took prominence. Any hopes of the contract that expired on December 31st 2024 being renewed or a workaround being found faded as Ukraine refused to change their stance, despite increasing pressure from Slovakia.


Donald Trump’s election victory in the US opened up the prospect of increased US LNG exports from early 2025, but the more immediate threat of a colder than expected winter caused prices to continue rising.


In November we recommended that those with contracts due for renewal in 2025 try to hold off as long as possible as the supply picture would improve in the new year.

Outlook

The prices for electricity for the period of Winter’25 ended the year over 50% higher than they had been during the February low -- in spite of many fundamentals in the market being similar to this time. The threats of global conflict, erratic weather, and uncertainty about short-term gas supplies have kept wholesale prices high. However, with prices for future years being priced significantly below the current levels, this suggests that prices are set to drop in the near future.


As we move into 2025, it will be important to monitor the UK’s gas reserve levels as increasingly cold temperatures could cause short-term prices spikes. However, with Asia no longer in the midst of a heatwave and US LNG exports expected to ramp up quickly, the supply-side of the market should be more positive than it was for the bulk of 2024.

Global conflicts remain an X-factor, but with Europe no longer reliant upon Russian supplies this should have less of an impact than in recent years.


It seems likely that after the current winter there will be short-term buying to replenish the reserves, but once this is completed, we should see prices begin to steadily decline, and 2025 should see prices drop below the levels we saw in the 2nd half of 2024.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs.

ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know

8 September 2025
ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know The Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme (ESOS) is back for another cycle. Phase 4 officially began on 6 December 2023, and while the final compliance deadline of 5 December 2027 may feel a long way off, now is the time to start preparing. If your business was in scope for Phase 3, you’ll already be familiar with the process of calculating energy use, submitting an action plan, and reporting on progress. Phase 4 builds on that foundation, with a few important changes to be aware of. Who needs to comply with ESOS Phase 4? The rules on eligibility haven’t changed since the last phase. ESOS applies to “large undertakings” in the UK, meaning your organisation will qualify if, on the qualification date of 31 December 2026, it meets all of the following criteria: Based and registered in the UK Employs 250 or more people Has an annual turnover above £44 million Has an annual balance sheet total over £38 million To see if your business is eligible, visit our site and answer the questions to see if you should be participating in ESOS phase 4. Even if you don’t meet the criteria right now, if you cross the threshold on the qualification date, you’ll fall into scope and must submit your compliance notification by 5 December 2027. If your business previously qualified but no longer does, you’ll need to submit a “Do Not Qualify” (DNQ) notification to the Environment Agency through the online MESOS portal. Key requirements for Phase 4 Phase 3 introduced the requirement for organisations to create an Action Plan that set out how you intend to cut energy use and when. That same principle continues in Phase 4, along with mandatory progress reporting in the years that follow. However, there are some updates to note: Action plan progress must now be included within your ESOS assessment. If commitments aren’t met, your business will need to explain why. Display Energy Certificates (DECs) and Green Deal Assessments (GDAs) are no longer valid routes to compliance. While net zero reporting will not yet be mandatory, you can choose to adopt the new PAS 51215 standards for voluntary energy and decarbonisation reporting. This could give your organisation a head start before net zero requirements arrive in Phase 5.

August 2025 Review

1 September 2025
August Review By Adam Novakovic August was a month that saw the return of domestic football and the return of one of the most prolific energy narratives of the last 5 years, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine once again dominated the headlines.

Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy

29 August 2025
Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy: What It Means for Your Electricity Bills From this autumn, UK businesses will see a new charge appear on their electricity invoices: the Nuclear Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Levy. This charge will help finance new nuclear power stations such as Sizewell C, but it also means yet another non-commodity cost will be added to bills. What is the RAB model? The Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model is not new and has been used for decades to fund water networks, energy grids, and other large-scale infrastructure. Instead of waiting until projects are completed, it allows investors to receive steady returns during construction. The aim is to lower the overall cost of borrowing by sharing risk between developers, government, and consumers. In 2022, the Nuclear Energy Financing Act cleared the way for this model to be applied to nuclear energy. The logic is that by reducing financial risk, investors will be more willing to commit to long-term projects. For the government, it helps accelerate the nuclear build-out that is essential to the UK’s 2030 clean power targets. For consumers, however, it means paying towards new power plants years before they produce a single kilowatt-hour and before they can help lower unit rates.

Why electricity prices keep going up

21 August 2025
Why electricity prices keep going up By Adam Novakovic Electricity has always been more than just a utility it is an essential component in every part of UK business. Yet in recent years, costs have been climbing steadily, and today’s bills are weighed down by more than just wholesale market prices. There can be long periods of time where wholesale prices remain stable or decrease, yet the amount businesses are paying for their electricity continues to rise. A large part of the increase comes from policy decisions. Most notably the way the UK has chosen to fund decarbonisation, its reliance on renewables, and its failure to make a serious commitment to nuclear energy.

Back Billing

14 August 2025
Back Billing Recently we have been seeing an increase in suppliers issuing invoices for charges that are more than 12 months old. In this article we will be reviewing why you may not be liable for these charges. What Is a Back Bill? A back bill is issued when your supplier discovers that they haven’t accurately invoiced you. This can be due to missed readings, estimated charges, or issues with obtaining consumption data. These bills can include charges dating back weeks, months, or even over a year, leading to unexpected costs. The 12-Month Back-Billing Rule Under Ofgem’s rules, suppliers cannot charge domestic energy users or microbusinesses for energy used more than 12 months ago, provided that you: Never received an accurate bill for that period (even if requested) Were never informed of charges through a statement of account Had a Direct Debit but it was set too low to cover the actual charges When You May Be Asked to Pay for Energy Consumed More Than 12 Months Ago The only scenario where you could be charged for older energy usage is if the issue is deemed to be your fault. For example, if you deliberately prevented meter access or ignored billing requests, your supplier can back-bill you for up to six years.

July 2025 Review

3 August 2025
July was a month that saw an England international football team lift a trophy and the unfamiliar events weren’t just limited to the sporting arena. For the first time in recent memory, it wasn’t geopolitics and international conflicts that were the main drivers behind movements in the energy market. In this article we review the factors that did cause energy prices to change and how prices are likely to move for the remainder of 2025.

The EII Support Levy (ESL)

29 July 2025
What is the EII Support Levy? As of April this year, a new charge called the EII Support Levy may have begun appearing on your invoices. The ESL has been introduced by the government to fund the Exemption Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). This essentially means that businesses not categorised as operating in Energy Intensive Industries will be offsetting the costs of businesses whose SIC codes do fall under the EII umbrella. This is being done to ensure UK businesses with large energy costs can remain competitive internationally. Which businesses need to pay it? All non-domestic UK energy users who don’t have a SIC code that classifies them as being a part of an Energy Intensive Industry will need to pay it. How the charge is applied will be at the discretion of suppliers with some suppliers yet to confirm exactly how they will be applying the charge.

June 2025 Review

30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.

The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy

24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 

How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices

19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.