October Review

1 November 2023

October Review

By Adam Novakovic
Energy Markets Consultant

As we pack away our Halloween decorations for another year, there appears to be more shocks and scares lurking in the world of energy. October was a month which saw man-made atrocities dominate the headlines, and it seems likely that global conflicts will once again be a significant catalyst in the energy markets.


Wholesale gas prices hit their highest levels since March, and the charts seem to be currently forming a pennant. In classical charting, a pennant/flag is normally a pre-cursor to another significant upward impulse. If this particular pennant plays out this way, then we can expect to see prices return to levels not seen since January.

The major news story this month has been the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Shortly after the first reports broke, we saw oil prices jump 4% and gas prices rise shortly after. While neither nation is a large producer of gas or oil (Israel does produce some LNG), a lot of the fears are related to the conflict spreading further across the region. Earlier this month we released a video identifying how developments in the Middle East could possibly lead to further rises in the prices of energy.   Ultimately, should the conflict continue, and should surrounding nations become involved, it will become likely that shipping routes in the region become less accessible.  This would be particularly negative for UK energy prices, seeing as how the UK’s main supplier of LNG is Qatar, who rely on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to export their LNG.


Another threat to the supply of gas this month came when Finland announced that there had been damage to the Baltic Interconnector pipeline. This pipeline connects Finland and Estonia, and had been transporting 30 GWh/day of gas before the disruption. It is expected that this disruption will not cause shortages in either country due to the significant reserve supplies that have been built up in the region. It has, however, been announced that it will likely take until April of next year for the pipeline to be repaired. While investigations into the cause are ongoing, it seems likely that this was caused by the anchor of a Russian-owned, Chinese cargo vessel. The incident occurred approximately one year after an attack on the Russian state-owned Nordstream pipelines.


In more positive news, strike action that had previously threatened Chevron’s Australian LNG plants have now been dismissed. The unions behind the strike action have now endorsed the new deal tabled by Chevron and it seems unlikely there will be any industrial action at these plants for the foreseeable future.




Outlook


After conflicting reports from industry experts -- with Drax stating electricity costs are likely to be reduced due to lessor BSuoS costs, and Cornwall Insights suggesting prices will rise as a result of increasing wholesale prices – there appears to be a lack of consensus about where prices will go in the medium term. One thing that is becoming apparent though, is that threats of damaged pipelines and conflict in the Middle East aren’t the only factors likely to have an impact on energy prices.


China has seen a growth in demand for LNG in 2023.  While this demand can initially be met by domestic gas production, should it continue, we may see the LNG market become more competitive. With global production expected to remain relatively flat over the next few years, any increase in demand will likely need to be met by existing sources, which could create a small-scale bidding war. If this is then coupled with difficulties in shipping LNG to some locations, it could have a very detrimental impact on regional energy prices.             


The World Bank has warned that, if the conflict in the Middle East is to spread, and the Russia/Ukraine conflict persists, we could see a dual energy shock. This would be the first of its kind in decades and would likely have a significant negative impact on energy prices globally.


In the UK, we are now getting a clearer picture of how the weather will look this winter as long-range forecasts have predicted that the impact of El Niño will likely see icy blasts and falling temperatures in December. Last winter was a mild one for most of Europe, but that now seems unlikely to be the case for the coming winter.


With the list of potential negative catalysts growing, it does seem as though now me be an opportune time to lock in some prices and guarantee peace of mind. It should be remembered however, that European gas reserve levels are near to capacity and that Norway has been increasing their gas export levels – factors which should mitigate some negative supply news. For those on flex contracts, we would look at hedging a % for the coming winter and keeping a close eye on the catalysts most likely to drive prices up. If there were to be news further impacting gas imports to Europe, we could see a large, fear-driven spike in wholesale prices, and it seems as though the potential for negative events occurring is higher than at any previous point this year.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs. And if you would like to receive our monthly analysis directly into your inbox each month, sign up for our free reports here.

ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know

8 September 2025
ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know The Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme (ESOS) is back for another cycle. Phase 4 officially began on 6 December 2023, and while the final compliance deadline of 5 December 2027 may feel a long way off, now is the time to start preparing. If your business was in scope for Phase 3, you’ll already be familiar with the process of calculating energy use, submitting an action plan, and reporting on progress. Phase 4 builds on that foundation, with a few important changes to be aware of. Who needs to comply with ESOS Phase 4? The rules on eligibility haven’t changed since the last phase. ESOS applies to “large undertakings” in the UK, meaning your organisation will qualify if, on the qualification date of 31 December 2026, it meets all of the following criteria: Based and registered in the UK Employs 250 or more people Has an annual turnover above £44 million Has an annual balance sheet total over £38 million To see if your business is eligible, visit our site and answer the questions to see if you should be participating in ESOS phase 4. Even if you don’t meet the criteria right now, if you cross the threshold on the qualification date, you’ll fall into scope and must submit your compliance notification by 5 December 2027. If your business previously qualified but no longer does, you’ll need to submit a “Do Not Qualify” (DNQ) notification to the Environment Agency through the online MESOS portal. Key requirements for Phase 4 Phase 3 introduced the requirement for organisations to create an Action Plan that set out how you intend to cut energy use and when. That same principle continues in Phase 4, along with mandatory progress reporting in the years that follow. However, there are some updates to note: Action plan progress must now be included within your ESOS assessment. If commitments aren’t met, your business will need to explain why. Display Energy Certificates (DECs) and Green Deal Assessments (GDAs) are no longer valid routes to compliance. While net zero reporting will not yet be mandatory, you can choose to adopt the new PAS 51215 standards for voluntary energy and decarbonisation reporting. This could give your organisation a head start before net zero requirements arrive in Phase 5.

August 2025 Review

1 September 2025
August Review By Adam Novakovic August was a month that saw the return of domestic football and the return of one of the most prolific energy narratives of the last 5 years, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine once again dominated the headlines.

Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy

29 August 2025
Nuclear Regulated Asset Base Levy: What It Means for Your Electricity Bills From this autumn, UK businesses will see a new charge appear on their electricity invoices: the Nuclear Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Levy. This charge will help finance new nuclear power stations such as Sizewell C, but it also means yet another non-commodity cost will be added to bills. What is the RAB model? The Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model is not new and has been used for decades to fund water networks, energy grids, and other large-scale infrastructure. Instead of waiting until projects are completed, it allows investors to receive steady returns during construction. The aim is to lower the overall cost of borrowing by sharing risk between developers, government, and consumers. In 2022, the Nuclear Energy Financing Act cleared the way for this model to be applied to nuclear energy. The logic is that by reducing financial risk, investors will be more willing to commit to long-term projects. For the government, it helps accelerate the nuclear build-out that is essential to the UK’s 2030 clean power targets. For consumers, however, it means paying towards new power plants years before they produce a single kilowatt-hour and before they can help lower unit rates.

Why electricity prices keep going up

21 August 2025
Why electricity prices keep going up By Adam Novakovic Electricity has always been more than just a utility it is an essential component in every part of UK business. Yet in recent years, costs have been climbing steadily, and today’s bills are weighed down by more than just wholesale market prices. There can be long periods of time where wholesale prices remain stable or decrease, yet the amount businesses are paying for their electricity continues to rise. A large part of the increase comes from policy decisions. Most notably the way the UK has chosen to fund decarbonisation, its reliance on renewables, and its failure to make a serious commitment to nuclear energy.

Back Billing

14 August 2025
Back Billing Recently we have been seeing an increase in suppliers issuing invoices for charges that are more than 12 months old. In this article we will be reviewing why you may not be liable for these charges. What Is a Back Bill? A back bill is issued when your supplier discovers that they haven’t accurately invoiced you. This can be due to missed readings, estimated charges, or issues with obtaining consumption data. These bills can include charges dating back weeks, months, or even over a year, leading to unexpected costs. The 12-Month Back-Billing Rule Under Ofgem’s rules, suppliers cannot charge domestic energy users or microbusinesses for energy used more than 12 months ago, provided that you: Never received an accurate bill for that period (even if requested) Were never informed of charges through a statement of account Had a Direct Debit but it was set too low to cover the actual charges When You May Be Asked to Pay for Energy Consumed More Than 12 Months Ago The only scenario where you could be charged for older energy usage is if the issue is deemed to be your fault. For example, if you deliberately prevented meter access or ignored billing requests, your supplier can back-bill you for up to six years.

July 2025 Review

3 August 2025
July was a month that saw an England international football team lift a trophy and the unfamiliar events weren’t just limited to the sporting arena. For the first time in recent memory, it wasn’t geopolitics and international conflicts that were the main drivers behind movements in the energy market. In this article we review the factors that did cause energy prices to change and how prices are likely to move for the remainder of 2025.

The EII Support Levy (ESL)

29 July 2025
What is the EII Support Levy? As of April this year, a new charge called the EII Support Levy may have begun appearing on your invoices. The ESL has been introduced by the government to fund the Exemption Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). This essentially means that businesses not categorised as operating in Energy Intensive Industries will be offsetting the costs of businesses whose SIC codes do fall under the EII umbrella. This is being done to ensure UK businesses with large energy costs can remain competitive internationally. Which businesses need to pay it? All non-domestic UK energy users who don’t have a SIC code that classifies them as being a part of an Energy Intensive Industry will need to pay it. How the charge is applied will be at the discretion of suppliers with some suppliers yet to confirm exactly how they will be applying the charge.

June 2025 Review

30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.

The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy

24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 

How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices

19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.