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‘SeeMore’ Energy Markets: February Review

Craig Watson • Mar 03, 2023

'SeeMore' Energy Markets: February Review

This February we saw wholesale prices continue to fall. The day ahead market was relatively stable with the price dropping slightly over the course of the last 4 weeks. It started the month at £148/MWh and closed at £127.10MWh representing at 14% decrease in price and returning to levels similar to August 2021. February 6th saw the highest price of £172.50MWh with February 17th seeing the lowest price of £120MWh. This continues the 2023 trend of price steadily decreasing. A meter that consumes 10,000KwH per month would be seeing commodity costs of £1370.50 compared to £3400.30 it would have been paying based on the day ahead price on December 1st.  For those who were out of contract in December, staying on the day ahead rates and waiting for prices to fall will likely prove to have been a superior strategy to taking the rates available then.


After a winter that saw reduced levels of gas consumption across Europe, the UK government have made plans to reduce energy costs for specific industries and announce the latest round of Energy schemes.


OFGEM announced that the energy price cap will change from £4279 to £3289 for the April-June quarter. With the level of support provided by the government set to be reduced from April 1st - this could lead to a 20% increase in the bills of the average household. From April 2023 - April 2024 the Energy Price Guarantee is expected to save the average household around £500, whereas a typical household was predicted to save £900 from the price guarantee that was in place from October 2022 - March 2023.

 

This announcement suggests that OFGEM see the declining price in the wholesale market as something that will be sustained even if wholesale price movements aren’t immediately reflected in the bills most households will receive.  


It is likely energy costs will remain at the forefront of people’s minds for the foreseeable future as it was revealed by The Centre for Sustainable Energy that standing charges have risen by more than 80% in the last year. These price rises are mostly felt when a customer moves from the previous fixed rate contract to a new deal and could come as some surprise to people whose contracts are due to expire in the coming months. Although with the trend of commodity prices starting to decrease, this could go some way to offset the increased price in bills that people can expect to see.


The UK has also felt the impact of higher energy prices in the supply of groceries. Items which previously may have been taken for granted as staples are now facing shortages. Frost in Morocco and Spain lowered tomato production this winter, and - with UK energy prices high - it hasn’t been cost-effective to make up for these supply shortfalls by heating greenhouses. Horticulture was not included in the Energy and Trade Intensive Industries scheme which provides support to specific industries. Although the UK government is trying to offer support elsewhere.


Last week the government announced that it is looking to provide industry-specific support to help energy-intensive industries remain internationally competitive. The chemical and steel industries will be among the industries supported, with the proposals expected to help over 300 UK businesses. 


Outlook

During the coming month the EU will meet to discuss reforming the energy markets. The aim will be to shield European consumers from the type of price fluctuations that were witnessed last year, with European electricity prices being disproportionately impacted by the price of gas. Currently, it appears that there is disagreement amongst EU nations about the best way to approach any such reform, with interventions in free-markets often leading to inadvertent costs being passed on to customers. As well as there being a lack of agreement on the extent to which renewables can be relied upon, and whether Nuclear power should be used as a key part of any energy strategy.  The finalised proposal will be made on March 14th, after that the final reforms will be negotiated. Although any impact we see from this is unlikely to come into force before 2024.


Fears remain that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could further impact energy prices across Europe. While Europe has been looking elsewhere for it’s energy needs – increasing imports from the US and Kazakhstan, while also seeing Norway begin to increase it’s output – there is still some reliance on Russian exports (10% of Europe’s gas still comes from Russia).

 

However, the head of RWE – Germany’s largest utility – has moved to assuage the remaining concerns. He stated that he doesn’t believe we will see gas prices as high as 2022’s peak again. After a mild winter, and with European gas storage levels considerably higher than this time last year, a lot of the tension surrounding the gas market seems to be dissipating. With French nuclear energy returning, European storage levels at 65% (compared to 29% last year), and Germany completing construction of it’s floating LNG terminals, the outlook is significantly more positive than it was for most of 2022.


07 May, 2024
Energy Consultants: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly. In today's volatile energy market, navigating the best deals for your business can be a daunting task. This is where energy brokers help, acting as intermediaries between you and the suppliers. However, with the right level of support & expertise, a suitable Energy Consultant can act as an intermediary between you and the suppliers, providing a beneficial service along the way. Unlike the financial industry -- where regulation is key in protecting customers -- the energy industry isn’t regulated to a high degree. Therefore, more due diligence is needed when trying to determine which consultant would be the best to partner with. So how do you distinguish between the good, the bad and the ugly when trying to secure the best energy advice? The Role of a Consultant: Think of an energy consultant as another arm to your business: Helping you to reduce costs through strategic procurement analysis, assisting with queries and resolving issues with suppliers, as well as energy conservation measures that could improve the sustainability of the business as you transition towards Net Zero. From an Energy Procurement angle, a Good Broker will have relationships with the whole of the market. They will understand all of the products and tariffs offered by each supplier, and -- before they even release your tender to the market -- they will have identified the right type of contract to meet your needs. 
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04 Apr, 2024
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04 Apr, 2024
March Review By Adam Novakovic, Energy Markets Consultant After 4 months of falling energy prices, March broke the downtrend and saw a bounce in the wholesale and seasonal markets. Electricity prices for the Winter of 2024 rose by approximately 7%, as 2025 seasons increased by over 10%. So, what caused these rises? After a milder than anticipated February, temperatures were below expectation at the beginning of March leading to increased consumption. Around this time LNG imports from the Middle East were being disrupted by on-going conflicts, and the Freeport LNG facility in the US remained offline, reducing the potential for further imports crossing the Atlantic. Closer to home, MPs were announcing plans to reform the electricity market with an emphasis being put on locational pricing. These changes – which are part of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements – could potentially lead to £35 billion in savings over the next 20 years, although the plans are still in their early stages. A more advanced project that was launched in March, and could potentially lower energy costs, was the new balancing reserve service. In recent years, Use of System charges have been increasing and this measure is seen as a key step in countering these rising costs. The new system will work by procuring reserve energy in advance instead of using on-the-day methods. This is anticipated to lead to over £600 million in savings over the coming years. One of the main disappointments from March’s budget announcements was the lack of a replacement for the Energy Bills Discount Scheme (EBDS). The EBDS had offered vital support to many businesses in the UK throughout the recent period of volatile energy prices. However, the scheme concluded at the end of March, with no replacement scheme being offered. Coinciding with the end of the scheme, OFGEM published a survey revealing that almost 60% of UK businesses are concerned about the impact of energy prices. While IPSOS revealed almost 2/3 rds of businesses are unaware of existing government schemes that could benefit them. If your business is currently looking for a way to reduce energy costs, then contact us to see how we can help reduce your energy spend. And if you would like to read more about government schemes that could help your business, check out the SeeMore energy website where we have a section dedicated to explaining various energy schemes . Outlook Despite the rising prices seen over the past month, fundamentally there are a lot of positives for the future of gas and electricity prices. UK storage facilities remain around 60% full, approximately 20% higher than levels seen for the majority of the last decade. Renewable production is at an all-time high, and there is a steady flow of LNG shipments arriving -- in addition to the supply received from Norwegian pipelines. In spite of this, some fears remain and there are potential negative catalysts that could lead to prices rising further, with the main factors to watch out for being based on geopolitical unrest. Throughout March we saw an increase in the targeting of infrastructure in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. And, despite an increased US military presence, attacks on cargo ships are still occurring in the Middle East which could have a direct impact on LNG imports from Qatar. Without any further negative catalysts or disruptions to supply, it seems most likely prices will steadily start to fall again over the coming quarter, but it will be prudent to keep monitoring developments in the on-going conflicts. If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs.
17 Mar, 2024
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15 Mar, 2024
Understanding KVA Capacity Charges and How to Save Money KVA capacity charges are a vital, yet often confusing, aspect of your electricity bill. This article explains what they are, how they are used, and how you can potentially reduce them. What are KVA Capacity Charges? Imagine your electricity supply like a motorway. KVA (Kilo Volt Amperes) represent the width of the lane allocated to your business. This reserved space ensures you have enough power to meet your peak demands, whenever needed. These charges reflect the cost of maintaining this dedicated capacity on the grid, even if you don't use it all of the time. They are set by your local Distribution Network Operator (DNO) and are billed separately on your electricity invoice. Example: A manufacturing plant has a high-power demand during operation. The DNO allocates a capacity of 50 KVA to ensure the plant has sufficient power readily available. This translates to a daily charge (based on the current rate) of: 3.18 pence/kVA * 50 kVA * 1 day = £1.59 Reducing KVA Capacity Charges Here's the good news: You can potentially lower your KVA charges by optimising your power usage: Monitor your consumption: Analyse your meter readings to identify periods of high energy use (or use an electricity footprint report, like those which are available through our online portal). Spread the load: Try to distribute high-power activities throughout the day, instead of concentrating them in short bursts. Shift tasks: Schedule non-critical tasks for off-peak hours when there's less demand on the grid. Upgrade equipment: Consider investing in energy-efficient equipment that consumes less power. Lowering your KVA Allowance By contacting your DNO, you can formally request a reduction in your allocated KVA capacity. This essentially reduces the width of your reserved lane on the grid. Reduction process: This is a free service as it doesn't involve physical changes to the network. Important consideration: Be mindful that future capacity increases might incur charges as the initially reduced capacity might have been allocated to others. Key Takeaway KVA capacity charges ensure you have reliable access to the power you need. However, by understanding your consumption patterns and implementing strategic changes, you can potentially reduce these charges and save money on your electricity bill. Additional Notes: Capacity charges might be represented as "DUoS" (Distribution Use of System) on your bill. Your DNO can help assess your meter readings to determine if a capacity reduction is suitable for your business. By implementing these strategies, you can gain better control over your KVA capacity and potentially achieve significant cost savings on your electricity bill. If you would like your KVA charges reviewed to see if you can reduce your capacity charges, contact us today . We can conduct a free review to see if you’re a suitable candidate for reduced capacity charges.
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01 Mar, 2024
By Adam Novakovic, Energy Markets Consultant In what proved to be the wettest February in 258 years, we saw energy prices continue their downward trend. Electricity prices for the upcoming summer season fell approximately 20% in the first 3 weeks of the month before ending the month with a small rally in a pattern mirrored by the gas prices.
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