2 December 2025

October 2025 Review

In the month of Halloween, October energy price movements were free of jump-scares. Whilst prices moved up slightly at the start of the month, they marginally decreased throughout the remainder of October. Ending the month slightly below the levels seen at the end of September.


The expectation this month was that European gas reserves would be the key story impacting energy prices. The European Network for Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) released their report on the Winter supply outlook. This confirmed that Europe is well prepared for the coming winter, with 83 % gas reserves recorded as of the 1st of October, and infrastructure resilient enough to meet demand without Russian pipeline gas. Their projections had Europe ending the winter season with over 30% storage even in the most severe scenarios.

There is also the expectation that any unforeseen supply disruptions can be mitigated through increased LNG imports -- supporting the EU’s goal of phasing out Russian gas while emphasising continually reducing demand.


During the first week of October Russia launched a wave of drone attacks against Ukraine -- the largest since the war began. These strikes have damaged Ukrainian gas production and left storage at 42% of capacity. This has forced Ukraine to look at importing large quantities of LNG from Europe this winter.

With the deal that brought Russian gas to Europe now expired, Europe faces added demand pressure. This comes despite Europe significantly reducing Russian gas imports and increasing LNG imports from other nations.

With there currently being a large quantity of LNG available for importation, and with EU gas reserves being in a healthy position, it seems as though further conflict may not have a large impact on energy prices. This could change however if Europe were to experience a particularly cold winter. 

Outlook

As we head into the colder months, weather becomes an increasingly large factor in how short-term prices move. So far, forecasts have been suggesting a warmer than normal November and December with wind output also expected to be above the seasonal norms. Should the forecasts prove to be accurate, we would expect wholesale energy prices to drop steadily throughout the winter months, but any colder-than-expected periods could lead to faster reserve usage, therefore increasing the competition for near-term LNG purchases.


Global LNG supplies are currently looking healthy with there being cargoes available for purchase should extra gas be required. LNG has long been seen as a cheaper alternative to traditional fossil fuels.


With many new supplies now ramped up and ready to export, we are seeing LNG supply being in a healthier position than ever before. When many of the forecasts for LNG demand were made a few years ago, many countries were experiencing a steady growth in energy consumption. This pattern has not continued with rising prices forcing many to review their energy usage causing LNG demand to stutter. With the demand side of the equation not growing proportionally to the supply, we could see this surplus supply cause LNG prices to drop, which would in turn lower wholesale energy costs. Without geopolitical events having a negative impact on prices, the LNG supply-demand picture could cause a steady drop in energy prices over the coming months.


Decreasing energy demand could also be further exacerbated by the US issuing large tariffs against China. Previous tariffs saw a drop in Chinese production which lowered their energy demands and saw China selling excess LNG -- adding to the already disproportionate supply-demand balance. Should this happen again, energy prices will be set to drop throughout the winter months.


If your business would like more information about how these developments impact your energy procurement, or you would like advice on any business energy related needs, get in touch with SeeMore Energy today. Our team of expert advisors can help with a range of issues, and ensure you’re not paying any more than necessary for your gas and electricity.

Electricity VAT Cut to 0%: What It Means for UK Charities and Housing Associations

2 November 2026
By Adam Novakovic Energy Markets Consultant Energy costs remain one of the largest overheads for British charities and housing providers. Following the government’s legislation introducing a temporary zero rate of VAT on qualifying domestic and non-business electricity supplies in Britain, many organisations have a major opportunity to cut their energy costs. If your charity or housing association is still paying the standard 20% business VAT rate on electricity bills, you could be missing out on an immediate zero-rating as well as substantial retrospective refunds. The VAT Rate Change Standard commercial energy comes with a 20% VAT rate, with organisations that use less than 1,000KWh/month paying a reduced rate of 5%. Under revised VAT rules, supplies that meet the qualifying 5% threshold are now cut to 0% VAT across England, Scotland, and Wales. These changes are for electricity only – gas retains the 5% VAT rate – and should be automatically applied by suppliers. However, this is only the case for accounts where the correct VAT rate is already applied to the account. In order for this to happen, a VAT declaration certificate needs to be sent to the supplier.

October 2026 Review

2 November 2026
October Review By Adam Novakovic Energy Markets Consultant  October was a month that saw far more tricks than treats in relation to energy prices. While there were times when the hope of falling prices seemed as though it was on the verge of becoming reality, those hopes never materialised and prices continued to ascend.