In a year where news coverage was dominated by Israel’s genocide in Gaza and the on-going conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical events played a key role in dictating the movements of the energy markets. In this article we take a look back at 2025, revisiting the stories that impacted energy prices, and look at what is likely to shape the gas and electricity markets in 2026.

By Adam Novakovic With the frenetic pace of the Christmas season and thoughts about whether the presents have been wrapped, if all of the Amazon parcels have arrived, and concerns over the turkey being sufficiently sized for the entire family, you may be forgiven for not having taken the time to track the energy markets this December. In our final monthly review of 2025, we will aim to bring you up to speed with how the energy markets are developing and what impact this is likely to have on British businesses.

Ever since the Summer of 2021, energy prices have been above their historical levels. Whilst the initial spike created by the Russia/Ukraine conflict was short-lived, prices never fully returned to their pre-conflict levels. More recently, the first quarter of 2024 saw some reprieve as wholesale prices dropped, but prices rose by over 150% between February of 2024 and February 2025.

By Adam Novakovic Whilst November’s budget may have disappointed businesses hoping for governmental assistance in the battle against high energy prices, the wholesale market offered some hope. With the mandated need for EU nations to replenish their reserves now in the rear-view mirror, buying pressure dissipated, and there were many positive stories that helped send prices downwards. The first half of the month saw small rises and drops that largely cancelled each other out, but from November 18 th through to the 28 th , wholesale gas prices fell approximately 12% and reached their lowest levels since July’24. There is normally a slight delay before the wholesale price drops are passed on to the end user, but for those with contract expiry dates in the next 6 months, the coming weeks may present opportunities to obtain quotes at rates more favourable than at any other point in 2025. One of the main reasons for optimism regarding future gas supplies is the peace talks being held between Russia and Ukraine. Any formal deal will almost certainly include a lifting of sanctions on Russian gas sales and provide a significant supply boost to the global market. However, there may still be obstacles to overcome before any peace plan is finalised with Ukraine and Russia both unwilling to concede territory.

By Adam Novakovic With many British businesses struggling to navigate the challenges that soaring energy costs have had on their ability to compete internationally, there was a sense of optimism that the government would introduce measures designed to alleviate the pressure that many companies have been burdened with. As we close out 2025, Energy costs are typically within the top 3 overheads for any business operating from commercial property & rising costs are fast becoming the most significant risk to sustainability, which has far wider impacts to the UK economy. Unfortunately, no such measures were forthcoming and the announcement fell flat for those that need it most. Hopes of expanding the NCC or EII discounts to further sectors, or reducing VAT levels on gas and electricity, turned to disappointment, as only minor changes were announced. One such change was the government’s decision to abolish the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) and to fund a substantial portion of Renewables Obligation costs through general taxation. Although these measures are aimed at easing pressures on domestic consumers, they also remove some of the cost drivers within the wider energy system. With fewer policy-driven levies feeding into wholesale and supplier operating costs, businesses may experience a modest dampening effect on future price rises, although this is unlikely to translate into immediate or substantial reductions in commercial tariffs. The Budget did reinforce the government’s commitment to green investment through its updated Green Financing Framework, which will fund green expenditures that tackle climate change, rebuild natural ecosystems and support jobs in green sectors. While this is unlikely to have any short-term impact on energy costs, one small positive -- when compared to previous green schemes -- is that this programme will be funded by the issuance of gilts and bonds, rather than passing the cost on to suppliers who invariably pass the cost on to the end users.  Despite the need for assistance with rising energy costs, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), many of which remain exposed to fixed-term contracts negotiated during the recent price spikes, are not going to see any immediate relief, and the accountability seems to remain solely at the door of the business owners to find their own ways to minimise costs.

The ever-increasing standing charge By Adam Novakovic For UK businesses, cutting energy consumption is no longer enough to keep bills under control. Even companies that have invested in LED lighting, insulation, or energy-efficient equipment are finding that a large part of their energy expenditure is the result of a different cost entirely: the ever-increasing standing charge. In some cases, businesses using under 150,000 kWh per year are now being charged £40–£50 per day in electricity standing charges alone. That’s £1,200–£1,500 per month, or £14,500–£18,000 a year, before a single unit of electricity is used. What are standing charges? A standing charge is the fixed daily fee you pay for your utilities before you’ve used a kWh of gas or electricity. The intention behind the standing charge is that it covers aspects of the energy network that require funds regardless of usage levels, such as: National Grid and local network costs Supplier operating costs and smart metering Some industry and government policy schemes A recent government consultation found that around half of the typical electricity standing charge is made up of network costs alone, with a further quarter linked to operating and industry costs.

October Review By Adam Novakovic In the month of Halloween, October energy price movements were free of jump-scares. Whilst prices moved up slightly at the start of the month, they marginally decreased throughout the remainder of October. Ending the month slightly below the levels seen at the end of September. The expectation this month was that European gas reserves would be the key story impacting energy prices. The European Network for Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) released their report on the Winter supply outlook. This confirmed that Europe is well prepared for the coming winter, with 83 % gas reserves recorded as of the 1 st of October, and infrastructure resilient enough to meet demand without Russian pipeline gas. Their projections had Europe ending the winter season with over 30% storage even in the most severe scenarios. There is also the expectation that any unforeseen supply disruptions can be mitigated through increased LNG imports -- supporting the EU’s goal of phasing out Russian gas while emphasising continually reducing demand. During the first week of October Russia launched a wave of drone attacks against Ukraine -- the largest since the war began. These strikes have damaged Ukrainian gas production and left storage at 42% of capacity. This has forced Ukraine to look at importing large quantities of LNG from Europe this winter. With the deal that brought Russian gas to Europe now expired, Europe faces added demand pressure. This comes despite Europe significantly reducing Russian gas imports and increasing LNG imports from other nations. With there currently being a large quantity of LNG available for importation, and with EU gas reserves being in a healthy position, it seems as though further conflict may not have a large impact on energy prices. This could change however if Europe were to experience a particularly cold winter.

With government-imposed charges making up an increasing percentage of business energy bills, it is becoming difficult for many UK industries to remain competitive in international markets. This led to the introduction of the British Industry Supercharger (BIS). A scheme for energy-intensive businesses that aims to counteract many of the government-imposed environmental levies and the rising transmission charges. In this article, we cover how it works and what your business needs to know to benefit from it. What is the British Industry Supercharger? Launched on the 1st April 2024, the British Industry Supercharger is a strategic package of relief measures aimed at energy‐intensive industries (EIIs) such as steel, metals, chemicals, cement, glass and paper. The aim is to reduce electricity non‐commodity costs so UK foundational industries can compete with businesses in nations with lower energy costs. The BIS is comprised of 3 sections: 1. Relief from Renewable Levies This provides businesses with exemptions from paying Renewables Obligation (RO), Feed-in Tariff (FiT), and Contracts for Difference (CfD). These charges were added to invoices in order to fund green-power generation. Under the Supercharger, eligible EIIs can receive up to 100% exemption from these charges. 2. Network Charging Cost Compensation This offers discounts on electricity network charges - including Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) fees. These fees cover the cost of maintaining the national grid and distribution networks, but can represent a large proportion of industrial energy bills. The BIS introduces a Network Charging Compensation (NCC) mechanism, reimbursing eligible firms for around 60% of these costs. 3. Capacity Market Exemption The scheme offers eligible business a full exemption from Capacity Market charges. The Capacity Market is funded through indirect charges on electricity bills with the aim of funding generators to ensure they are available during supply-peaks.

Why UK Energy Prices Keep On Rising… And what it means to manufacturing and engineering companies over the next few years Over the past decade, UK energy prices have changed dramatically. Not only in terms of overall cost but also in how those costs are made up. Ten years ago, the largest part of a business electricity bill came from the commodity element: the wholesale price of electricity. Non-commodity charges -- often used to support the infrastructure of the electricity grid or government energy policies -- were relatively modest. In 2013, the typical breakdown of electricity costs for a business user was around 60–65% commodity and 35–40% non-commodity. Today, that picture has flipped. For many manufacturers, non-commodity charges now make up over 60% of the total bill, with the non-commodity percentage of the bill increasing each year. This shift explains why energy bills have remained stubbornly high, even during periods when wholesale prices fell. Grid reinforcement, renewable subsidies, and balancing costs have grown year on year, with these costs baked into every unit of power consumed, regardless of wholesale prices.